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Electorate Trends in Florida
Three trends in the next half-century will change the way Florida votes.
Trend 3: Young Professionals
Over the past couple of decades, Florida has been a magnet for young professionals who have mostly identified themselves as independents.
During the last three elections, however, the younger voters are trending heavily Democratic. History, MacManus says, shows that a realignment of the electorate can be triggered by any one of three specific events: War, an economic downturn or large-scale corruption. With two of the three triggers now present, MacManus wonders whether the recent tendency of Florida’s young professionals to register as Democrats might portend a permanent political shift by that group.
To be sure, Sen. Barack Obama’s presidential candidacy has driven some of the recent surge in Democratic registration among Florida’s younger voters. Regardless of why young voters are suddenly moving to the left, it appears to bode well for the Democrats’ long-term fortunes. History shows that over the course of their lifetimes, voters tend to stick with their initial party affiliation. Says MacManus: “If Obama wins, the younger electorate, which is already trending Democratic in Florida, could result in Florida having a rebirth of Democratic clout in the state Capitol.”
