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Electorate Trends in Florida
Three trends in the next half-century will change the way Florida votes.
Trend 2: More Newcomers
Waves of new immigrants will continue to shake up the political scene over the next several decades.
Of particular note is the fact that Florida’s Hispanic community is becoming more diverse. While Cuban-Americans still comprise the largest Hispanic population in Miami-Dade County, the county also has sizable populations of Nicaraguans and Colombians. In Broward County, Puerto Ricans are the largest Hispanic group. In Jacksonville, Tampa Bay and Orlando, Puerto Ricans and Mexicans are the largest “subgroups,” but those regions also are home to significant numbers of Hondurans, Venezuelans, Ecuadorans and Argentinians.
The biggest difference between the earlier generations of Cuban immigrants and newer, non-Cuban immigrants is that the non-Cubans are less concerned with foreign policy and more concerned with domestic issues like education and jobs.
Though neither party has a lock on these voters, new immigrants are helping to make the Democratic Party more competitive in the state, says James Gimpel, a University of Maryland professor who has written extensively about Florida’s changing electorate in his book “Patchwork Nation: Sectionalism and Political Change in American Politics.” “Many of these Latino immigrants move into the Democratic Party. A lot of the Cold War politics associated with the Cuban migrations — that’s fading,” says Gimpel.
Indeed, the number of Hispanic voters registered as Democrats has overtaken the number of Hispanic Republicans, according to recent Florida voter registration statistics. A Democratic Party analysis provided to the Miami Herald in May showed 418,339 Hispanics Democrats statewide, compared to 415,068 Hispanic Republicans. The remaining 345,108 Hispanic voters did not register their affiliation with either party.
Thrall says political forecasters shouldn’t focus exclusively on Hispanic immigrants when examining immigration trends. Thrall predicts that in 20 to 30 years, the economies of Latin America will strengthen and fewer Latin Americans will move to Florida and the U.S. in general. “Miami will continue to be a major financial center for Latin America,” and the Latin influence in Florida won’t diminish, he says.
In 15 years, Thrall predicts, the biggest wave of immigrants will come from the Middle East and Africa. An increase in Muslim immigration to the U.S. could trigger the same sort of socio-political unrest that Germany and France have endured. “It’s going to be a major political issue in Florida in a dozen years or more, as it is in Europe today,” he says.
