Tampa Bay's Hillsborough, Pinellas and Pasco counties welcomed nearly 100,000 new households between 2018 and 2023. During the same time period, however, only 82,000 new housing units came online.
That gap — which is projected to widen through 2035 — is the focus of "The Housing Equation," a first-of-its-kind report released in January by the Tampa Bay Partnership. The coalition of regional business leaders collaborated with JPMorgan Chase, SBFriedman, Intersection Ventures and the University of Florida Shimberg Center for Housing Studies on the project. It marks the tri-county region's first comprehensive analysis of housing supply, demand and affordability.
Sarah Burgoyne, senior director of research and public policy for the Partnership, shared her takeaways with Florida Trend as the report's lead researcher.
Low housing inventory
In 2023, 1.3 million housing units dotted Hillsborough, Pinellas and Pasco counties. Nearly two-thirds were single-family homes. Multifamily and condo units accounted for 21% and 12% of the inventory, respectively.
It's not enough supply to meet demand, particularly for lower-income residents. The tri-county region lacks an estimated 80,650 units that would be affordable to owner households earning up to 80% of the area median income ($69,500 for a household of four). For renter households earning less than 60% of the area median income ($52,150 for a household of four), the deficit is nearly 70,000. That forces lower-income residents into housing that exceeds their price range.
Hillsborough County accounts for around half the region's deficit in affordable owner-occupied housing. Pasco County, with its newer housing stock and more moderate costs, only accounts for 10%. "Part of that is because of available land space ... to build housing of all types," Burgoyne says. "We see people leaving the urban core."
She credits the overall housing deficit to the region's unprecedented population growth during the COVID-19 pandemic. The three counties saw a 33% increase in jobs — about 365,000 new positions — from 2010 to 2024. That spike drove a high demand for housing that has outpaced additions.
Declining affordability
Since 2018, median rents in Hillsborough, Pinellas and Pasco counties have crept up nearly 50%. Homes under $200,000 made up 30% of sales in 2019; in 2022, they dropped to just 5%. Within the same timeframe, median hourly wage only increased 29%.
This mix of factors has left one-third of the tri-county region's owner households cost-burdened, meaning they spend at least 30% of their monthly income on housing, along with more than half the renter households. As many as 25% of renters are severely cost-burdened, meaning they spend at least half of their monthly income on housing.
Retail, accommodation and food service industries — the region's primary employment sectors — offer average wages below what's needed to afford a two-bedroom unit at market rate.
"Housing is ultimately a workforce issue. Housing affordability impacts the workforce, our competitiveness and, ultimately, long-term economic growth," Burgoyne says. "It's essential that we have housing available for workers like teachers, nurses, hospitality workers that fuel a huge portion of our economy, so that they're not priced out of the region."
Meeting future needs
Hillsborough, Pinellas and Pasco counties are expected to welcome 564,000 net new residents by 2035. To keep up, the region needs to add around 254,700 new housing units — an average of 21,225 units per year — to keep pace with projected growth.
The report identified 22 affordable housing projects planned for the region that aren't financed yet, accounting for 2,488 unfunded units. A $273-million infusion of gap funding — the flexible capital needed for affordable housing deals, like that of public, private or philanthropic subsidies — would unlock $663 million in traditional funding from public or private financing.
By completion, the projects are estimated to generate an estimated $1 billion in economic impact between construction, operations and resident spending. "We're asking for everyone to support projects that exist already, that are in the pipeline, as a starting point," Burgoyne says.
But it won't solve the region's housing crunch: "Unfortunately, that's a very small dent in the total number of units that we need," she says, pointing to the need for a regional action plan to address housing affordability and other issues like transportation and workforce. She also emphasizes advocacy for regulations that improve housing affordability, like zoning regulations that diversify housing types and allow creative financing solutions.
— By Brittney J. Miller