In it's 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Update, NOAA's National Weather Service indicates there is a 70 percent chance of 12 to 17 named storms.
Photo: NOAA
As of 8/11/16, there have been five named storms, including two hurricanes (Alex and Earl). Four made landfall: Bonnie (in S. Carolina), Colin (in Florida), Danielle (in Mexico), and Earl (in Belize and Mexico).
Photo: NOAA
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News Release
NOAA revises hurricane season prediction upward for remainder of 2016
Forecasters say the Atlantic hurricane season is still expected to be strongest since 2012, with 70-percent chance of 12–17 named storms.
Forecasters now expect a 70-percent chance of 12–17 named storms, of which 5–8 are expected to become hurricanes, including 2–4 major hurricanes. The initial outlook called for 10–16 named storms, 4–8 hurricanes, and 1–4 major hurricanes. The seasonal averages are 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
“We’ve raised the numbers because some conditions now in place are indicative of a more active hurricane season, such as El Niño ending, weaker vertical wind shear and weaker trade winds over the central tropical Atlantic, and a stronger west African monsoon,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “However, less conducive ocean temperature patterns in both the Atlantic and eastern subtropical North Pacific, combined with stronger wind shear and sinking motion in the atmosphere over the Caribbean Sea, are expected to prevent the season from becoming extremely active.”
"Given these competing conditions, La Niña, if it develops, will most likely be weak and have little impact on the hurricane season,” added Bell. NOAAannounced today that La Niña is slightly favored to develop during the hurricane season.
To date, there have been five named storms, including two hurricanes (Alex and Earl). Four made landfall: Bonnie (in South Carolina), Colin (in western Florida), Danielle (in eastern Mexico), and Earl (in Belize and Mexico).
As we move into the peak of hurricane season, when hurricanes are most frequent and often at their strongest, NOAA urges coastal residents to make sure they have theirhurricane preparedness plans in place and to monitor the latest forecasts. Learn how NOAA forecasts hurricanes.
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On the Web:
Atlantic hurricane season outlook update
Atlantic hurricane season outlook (May 27)offsite link
Reddit 'Ask Me Anything' with Dr. Gerry Bell (June 1)
NOAA Hurricane Response Information
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