Donald Trump overtakes Hillary Clinton in Florida, new Quinnipiac University swing state poll finds

• FLORIDA: Trump 42 – Clinton 39
• OHIO: Clinton 41 – Trump 41
• PENNSYLVANIA: Trump 43 – Clinton 41

With a drop in grades on honesty and moral standards, Democrat Hillary Clinton loses an 8-point lead over Republican Donald Trump in Florida, and finds herself in too-close-to-call races in the three critical swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today. 

Clinton loses ground on almost every measure from a June 21 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. The Swing State Poll focuses on Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania because since 1960 no candidate has won the presidential race without taking at least two of these three states. 

The presidential matchups show:

• Florida - Trump at 42 percent to Clinton's 39, compared to a 47 - 39 percent Clinton lead June 21;
• Ohio - Clinton and Trump tied 41 - 41 percent, compared to a 40 - 40 percent tie June 21;
• Pennsylvania - Trump at 43 percent to Clinton's 41 percent, compared to June 21, when Clinton had 42 percent to Trump's 41 percent. With third party candidates in the race, results are:
• Florida - Trump leads Clinton 41 - 36 percent, with 7 percent for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 4 percent for Green Party candidate Jill Stein;
• Ohio - Trump at 37 percent to Clinton's 36 percent, with Johnson at 7 percent and Stein at 6 percent;
• Pennsylvania - Trump over Clinton 40 - 34 percent with 9 percent for Johnson and 3 percent for Stein.

"Donald Trump enters the Republican Convention on a small roll in the three most important swing states in the country. He has wiped out Hillary Clinton's lead in Florida; is on the upside of too-close to call races in Florida and Pennsylvania and is locked in a dead heat in Ohio," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. 

"While there is no definite link between Clinton's drop in Florida and the U.S. Justice Department decision not to prosecute her for her handling of e-mails, she has lost ground to Trump on questions which measure moral standards and honesty." 

By wide margins, voters in each state agree with the statement, "The old way of doing things no longer works and we need radical change." Voters also agree by wide margins that trade agreements with other countries have hurt them and their families' financial situation. 

Voters still say Clinton is more intelligent than Trump and that she is better prepared to be president. But Clinton has lost her wide lead over Trump for having "higher moral standards." And Trump widens his lead over Clinton for being more honest and trustworthy. 

Florida

While the gender gap remains wide, Trump gains support among men, who back him 50 - 29 percent, and women, who back Clinton 48 - 36 percent, compared to 52 - 34 percent in June. Independent voters shift from 44 - 35 percent for Clinton last month to 43 - 30 percent for Trump today. Republicans back Trump 82 - 6 percent, while Clinton leads 87 - 4 among Democrats. White voters back Trump 54 - 30 percent, as non-white voters go to Clinton 56 - 21 percent. 

Florida voters give Clinton and Trump negative favorability ratings, 35 - 59 percent for her and 38 - 54 percent for him. 

Comparing the candidates' character traits, voters say:

• 53 - 37 percent that Clinton is better prepared to be president;
• 42 - 42 percent tie on who has higher moral standards, wiping out a 47 - 36 percent Clinton lead on this measure June 21;
• 52 - 35 percent that Clinton is more intelligent;
• 50 - 37 percent that Trump is more honest and trustworthy, up from 43 - 40 percent.

Florida voters say 54 - 39 percent that Trump would be better creating jobs; 49 - 45 percent that he would do better on immigration and 57 - 35 percent that Trump would be more effective against ISIS. 

Voters agree:

• 71 - 25 percent that the old ways don't work and it's time for radical change;
• 55 - 39 percent that foreign trade agreements have hurt them personally;
• 80 - 19 that public officials "don't care much what people like me think."

"In Florida, Donald Trump is getting only 21 percent of the non-white vote. Although he is winning among white voters, who are mainly Republican, victory in Florida will be a very difficult lift for him if he can't do better among non-white voters," Brown said. 

The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research. 

Visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll. 

Tags: Government/Politics & Law, Election 2016