Numbers Game
Real estate broker and appraiser Dennis Black says more than 1,000 North Port homes are vacant. [Photo: Jeffrey Camp] |
Today, residential construction in North Port is at a near-standstill, and experts are at odds over just how many people actually moved into the homes that were built.
A Census estimate released in July pegs North Port’s population at 50,000, and City Manager Steven Crowell says the planning department thinks the actual figure is closer to 52,000. But Dennis Black, a broker and appraiser who owns a real estate school in Port Charlotte, says city officials are confusing building stats with end-user demand. “The number of people actually moving into the community has been shrinking as a percentage” for years,” says Black.
Black estimates North Port’s population at 40,000 to 45,000. He knows this, he says, because he drove street by street for six weeks and surveyed which homes are occupied. Black says he began the study as an exercise to use in a real estate course he teaches. Along the way, he decided there was a thirst for “no-spin” information about the market.
North Port's Boom |
|
Year | Population |
2000 | 22,797 |
2001 | 25,234 |
2002 | 27,448 |
2003 | 31,352 |
2004 | 35,721 |
2005 | 40,100 |
2006 | 50,523 |
2007 | 52,000 |
Source: U.S. Census; Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida; and North Port |
Black is planning similar reports for Lehigh Acres near Fort Myers and Silver Spring Shores in Ocala, which he says face the “same problems” as North Port.
The best indicator of North Port’s true population may be the polls. If the population there really is booming, North Port voters may soon outnumber their wealthier neighbors in the north end of Sarasota County, giving them a bigger say in the election of county commissioners. Tower, for one, hopes that’s the case. “The county’s always tried to ignore us. That would give us more political clout.”