This election year features a blizzard of races that could reshape both state and national politics. Nobody knows what to expect.

Elections can be intense in Florida, the biggest purple state in the country, particularly in presidential years when the state’s 29 Electoral College votes are in play. But most people in Florida have never seen a campaign season quite like this one.

At the top of the ticket is the most unpredictable presidential election in recent memory and an intense U.S. Senate race, in which Marco Rubio reversed course and announced he’s running for re-election. A little further down the ticket, some of the state’s best-known politicians are scrambling to find new political homes after courts ordered state lawmakers to redraw congressional boundaries. Meanwhile, historic change may be coming to the Legislature itself, where newcomers will claim nearly half of the 40-seat Senate and more than a third of the 120-seat House.

With so many competitive elections around the state and an electorate bent on change, not even the shrewdest political experts know what to expect this fall. But everyone agrees the stakes are enormous.

“In Florida, I think the big question is really how much damage Donald Trump is going to do to the Republican ticket among Latino voters and Hispanic voters. I conducted a poll in May of this year, and it showed that only 37% of Cuban- American voters would vote for Trump if the election were today. And 10% of Cuban- American Republicans would not show up to the polls. Those numbers are daunting if they hold up. Does he hurt other Republican candidates in Florida for Congress and the state Legislature? There are several Hispanic seats in Miami-Dade County that are tossup seats, and the presence of Donald Trump is certainly not very helpful.”

— Dario Moreno, political science professor, Florida International University, Miami

“Trump will do much better with Hispanics than the pundits suppose, and his hard rhetoric against bad trade deals will help him with senior Rust Belters who have retired to Florida. All this leads to a Trump victory in Florida and beyond. As to what Trump’s victory means, I am not sure. He is not a limited-government conservative, and he seems incapable of inspiring leadership. So he will reflect the anger of the moment, and then what his presidency and what the Republican Party become afterward remains to be seen.”

— Brett Doster, former Florida executive director for President George W. Bush’s 2004 re-election campaign; founder/ president, political consulting fi rm Front Line Strategies, Tallahassee

“With Florida’s growing diverse population, Hillary Clinton will be able to grow a coalition of voters in central and south Florida to run up the numbers while I expect Donald Trump to try to run up the numbers in north Florida. The crisis in Puerto Rico will be a pivotal issue in central Florida among the growing Puerto Rican voter base. Florida has been won by a narrow margin in the last few election cycles and this year may be no different, but Donald Trump’s unusual and insulting tone could pave the way for Hillary Clinton to grow her coalition among moderate Republicans in south Florida, leading her to carry Florida’s 29 electoral votes and with those the White House.”

— Christian Ulvert, former director of state House campaigns for the Florida Democratic Party; founder/president, political consulting firm Edge Communications, Miami

“This is going to be an impossible election to poll because I’m sure Trump is going to be bringing out voters who are new, but I’m also sure he’s going to be turning off voters who would have otherwise voted Republican.”

— Dan Gelber, former state House Democratic leader and former state senator; 2010 Democratic nominee for attorney general, Miami Beach

“The most unusual thing about this presidential election is that the Republican nominee isn’t a Republican. He is at best a charlatan and at worst a fascist. And hopefully the Republicans of conscience and conservatives who know what they stand for and why will not vote for him in November. I’m starting to feel very strongly that you can’t abstain — you have to make some sort of statement. From my perspective, I may write someone in. I may vote for Gary Johnson. All I know for certain is that I won’t vote for Donald Trump.”

— Mac Stipanovich, campaign manager and chief of staff to former Gov. Bob Martinez; senior adviser to former Gov. Jeb Bush, Tallahassee

“Millennials, women and minorities. The key question about millennials is turnout. About women, it is whether Trump can nearly split the female vote. Will suburban Republican-leaning women cross over and vote for Hillary? Will young women Sanders supporters not vote in the presidential race at all? About minorities, it is all about turnout among black voters, and whether Trump can garner at least 40% of the Hispanic vote (historically a benchmark for whether a Republican can win a statewide race). The debates will be critical. We have a long history in Florida of debates making a difference in who a citizen votes for.”

— Susan MacManus, political science professor, University of South Florida, Tampa

“On the Republican side, the driving force for this election is anger and frustration with politics as usual and a deep-rooted feeling that the country has been and remains on the wrong track. On the Democratic side, the driving force is disbelief that Donald Trump could receive the GOP nomination and fear and anger that he could actually become president.”

— Aubrey Jewett, political science professor, University of Central Florida, Orlando

“Any honest observer would have to tell you the outcome of the presidential race this November is impossible to predict given the results of the primary season. Florida will be pivotal once again if the election is close, but you have to wonder about the broader issue of how we elect presidents. Will 2016 stick out as an anomaly — or is this the new mindset of many Americans? Have we entered, as one commentator said, ‘post policy’ elections where the public is so fed up they don’t care about the specifics of a candidate’s vision (or lack of one) for the country? Intriguing times in American politics and disheartening if the 2016 trend continues.”

— Cory Tilley, deputy chief of staff/communications director to former Gov. Jeb Bush; founder/president of public relations firm CoreMessage, Tallahassee

Florida's U.S. Senate Races

Fissure

After repeated vows that he would not run for re-election to the Senate, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio reversed course at the last minute and launched a campaign for a second term. Rubio says his decision was based on concerns about both presidential candidates and the need for the GOP to retain control of the Senate.

The decision instantly changed the dynamics of what had been a race among a group of ‘who’s-that?’ candidates — a group that lacked statewide profiles developed over years of service.

More notable, Rubio’s decision highlights the fissure in politics throughout the country this election year that has seen the parties’ traditional donor bases and leaders contending against angry voters backing nontraditional politicians like Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, who often share little ideologically with their respective parties’ traditional views.

Rubio’s announcement drew support from Florida’s traditional GOP wing, including former Gov. Jeb Bush, who quickly endorsed Rubio’s candidacy despite the acrimony that played out between the two during their presidential campaigns. Meanwhile, two other mainstream Republicans who had been seeking the Senate seat, U.S. Rep. David Jolly and Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera, withdrew from the race, as did U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis, a Tea Party favorite, and businessman Todd Wilcox.

But while Trump had encouraged Rubio to run, the non-traditional wing of Florida’s GOP didn’t fall in line behind Rubio’s bid. Gov. Rick Scott immediately praised and encouraged Rubio’s lone remaining significant opponent in the GOP primary: Manatee County home builder Carlos Beruff, a friend of Scott’s who has never held elected office.

If Rubio defeats Beruff in the August primary, he will face the winner of a Democratic primary between U.S. Reps. Patrick Murphy (Jupiter) and Alan Grayson (Orlando).

Murphy, the son of Florida developer Tom Murphy Jr., ousted Tea Party candidate Allen West from Congress in 2012. Murphy was recruited by national Democratic Party leaders who attempted to clear the field for him. But they weren’t able to keep Grayson out.

With control of the U.S. Senate in play — and the turnout boost provided by a presidential election — both national parties are expected to invest heavily in the race. One consideration for national GOP leaders who encouraged Rubio to run is the fact that he can raise most of the money he’ll need to run, freeing up funds raised nationally for other races.

Whoever wins, the fallout of the Senate race could have lasting implications: A Rubio defeat could possibly scuttle his political career; a Rubio win would likely position him for another presidential run in four or eight years.

Florida's U.S. House Races

The Bottom Line

Florida’s congressional delegation is divided 17-10 between Republicans and Democrats. But a more favorable congressional map for Democrats means that gap is likely to shrink — a 15-12 or 16-11 Republican majority is most likely. The shift is unlikely to have a substantial impact as Republicans are expected to retain their majority nationally. But the Florida races are nonetheless filled with intriguing storylines.

The Bench Shortens

District 2 (Bay, Calhoun, Columbia, Dixie, Franklin, Gilchrist, Gulf, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafayette, Leon, Levy, Liberty, Marion, Suwannee, Taylor, Wakulla, Washington counties) — Amid an electoral washout in 2014, Florida Democrats took solace in the election of Gwen Graham, daughter of former Gov. Bob Graham, to Congress. Two years later, Graham decided not to seek re-election to her northwest Florida seat in District 2, which has been redrawn to become a Republican-leaning seat. The next representative will come from a crowded Republican primary that includes Panama City physician Neal Dunn, former U.S. Attorney Ken Sukhia and Mary Thomas, a former attorney in Gov. Rick Scott’s administration. Meanwhile, even without her platform in Congress, Graham is widely seen as a likely candidate for governor in 2018.

Go West

District 11 (Citrus, Hernando, Lake, Marion, Sumter counties) — One of Orlando’s longest-serving elected officials is trying to become Brooksville’s newest. U.S. Rep. Daniel Webster, who has been in elected office almost continually since 1980, watched the Legislature transform his Republicanleaning seat into a safely Democratic slot. So he’s decided to run instead in District 11, which includes all of Citrus, Hernando and Sumter counties and parts of Lake and Marion counties, in an attempt to replace retiring U.S. Rep. Rich Nugent. Some people are upset with the geographic jump, including Nugent, who has endorsed his former chief of staff, Justin Grabelle, one of Webster’s opponents in the Republican primary.

He’s Baaack

District 13 (Pinellas County) — Once a popular Republican governor, Charlie Crist gave up the governor’s mansion to run for U.S. Senate in 2010, became an independent amid a faltering campaign, lost to Marco Rubio, then became a Democrat and won the party’s nomination for governor in 2014, only to lose to Gov. Rick Scott in the general election. Crist now is trying to make a comeback, running to represent District 13 in Pinellas County. The seat is held by Republican Rep. David Jolly, but the district was redrawn to take in many more Democratic precincts — including the downtown St. Petersburg neighborhood in which Crist lives.

Can Brown Still Deliver?

District 5 (Baker, Columbia, Duval, Gadsden, Hamilton, Jefferson, Leon, Madison counties) — U.S. Rep. Corrine Brown was indicted on conspiracy and fraud charges in July, throwing her re-election campaign into chaos. On top of that, she is running in a redrawn district. Once snaking from Jacksonville to Orlando, her district now has an east-west configuration that includes a lot of new and unfamiliar territory for her. Brown faces a tough opponent in former Senate Minority Leader Al Lawson, who has a base of support in Tallahassee.

Tossup No.1

District 18 (Martin, Palm Beach, St. Lucie counties) — Most pundits believe there are two true tossup congressional districts in Florida this year. The first is District 18, where incumbent Rep. Patrick Murphy is giving up the seat to run for U.S. Senate, and the prospect of an open swing seat has attracted a host of contenders. Rebecca Negron, a Martin County school board member and the wife of incoming Senate President Joe Negron, and former state Rep. Carl Domino are among the Republican candidates; Randy Perkins, who founded debrisremoval company AshBritt and can self-fund his campaign, is seen as the Democratic frontrunner.

Tossup No. 2

District 26 (part of Miami- Dade, Monroe counties) — In District 26 in Miami-Dade and Monroe counties, first-term Republican Rep. Carlos Curbelo, a moderate, has vowed not to vote for Donald Trump (or Hillary Clinton). Democrat and former U.S. Rep. Joe Garcia, who Curbelo ousted from Congress in 2014, wants a rematch, though Garcia must first beat Annette Taddeo, the Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor in 2014.

Campaign Finance

$500,000

The cost for a campaign to reach its target audience three times with a network ad buy this summer in Miami, the state’s most expensive media market.

$35,000

Approximate cost for a campaign to send a mail piece to 10,000 homes.

$40,000

The approximate cost to reach a campaign’s target audience three times with a network ad buy this summer in Gainesville, the state’s cheapest media market.

Florida House

Can Democrats Gain Ground?

The most important elections in Florida this year are the 40 state Senate races, where Democrats, marginalized to the point of irrelevance, have an opportunity to make significant gains.

As with the state’s congressional districts, the Republican-controlled Legislature was forced to redraw Senate seats this year to comply with anti-gerrymandering provisions that voters added to the state Constitution in 2010. As a result, there are at least four competitive swing seats, a number that could swell to five or six depending on how the presidential race buffets candidates further down the ballot.

Republicans have a 24-16 majority in the Legislature’s upper chamber, but the gap could shrink to anything from 25-15 to 22-18.

It isn’t just a matter of Republicans vs. Democrats. With a number of senators retiring or giving up their seats in pursuit of other offices, there are also several contests pitting conservatives against moderates in Republican primaries or liberals against moderates in Democratic primaries. Those results could do as much to alter the balance in the Senate as the general election campaign.

There will be at least 18 new senators next year, which would be the biggest crop of newcomers since 1992. And it’s entirely possible that more than half of the chamber will be new.

“The turnover in the Senate could drastically change the direction of Florida,” says Marian Johnson, political director for the Florida Chamber of Commerce.

Two Strong Contenders

District 8 (Alachua, Marion, Putnam counties) — An open seat race pitting Republican candidate state Rep. W. Keith Perry, a contractor with a history of winning elections in purple districts, against Democratic former state Sen. Rod Smith, a pro-gun former prosecutor who made an unsuccessful run for governor in 2006 that was heavily financed by the sugar industry. As a conservative Democrat with a history of deal-making in the Legislature, Smith could immediately become one of the most important figures in the Legislature if he wins.

Shrewd Operator

Distrct 18 (Hillsborough County) — There isn’t a stronger Republican challenger for a state Senate seat than state Rep. Dana Young, a shrewd political operator and prodigious fundraiser. She’s popular outside of her party for championing causes beneficial to the craft-beer industry. Still, Republican strategists are nervous about this seat, which President Barack Obama carried in 2012. Democrats, who will nominate Tampa attorney Bob Buesing, may have to spend upward of $2 million to win, and it’s unlikely they’ll have that kind of money.

Big Impact

District 23 (Charlotte, Sarasota counties) — No race will have a bigger impact on the Senate Republican caucus than this one. The GOP primary includes sitting Reps. Greg Steube and Ray Pilon, former state Rep. Doug Holder and former Sarasota Commissioner Nora Patterson. Holder and Steube are seen as the most conservative candidates, while Patterson and Pilon are more moderate. Adding to the intrigue: Patterson was recruited to run by Sen. Jack Latvala (R-Clearwater) during his unsuccessful run for the Senate presidency. Despite the loss, Latvala has proven to be a master builder of coalitions of senators that create headaches for leadership. Patterson’s election would likely strengthen his hand. The winner of the GOP primary in August will be the overwhelming favorite to win the general election.

GOP Priority

District 39 (Miami-Dade, Monroe counties) — Incumbent Republican Sen. Anitere Flores is part of incoming Senate President Joe Negron’s inner circle, and Negron, who is in charge of spending on Republican Senate campaigns, will make her re-election a priority. Flores appeared to catch a break at the end of qualifying when Andrew Korge, a well-financed Democratic challenger, decided to run for a different Senate seat. But she still faces a credible opponent in former Florida International University executive Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.

Rising Star

District 13 (Orange County) — Former Democratic state Rep. Mike Clelland made headlines in 2012 when he defeated a future Republican House Speaker in a district that had been drawn for a Republican to win. He lost the seat two years later, but Democratic Party leaders think he’s a future star and are anxious to get him back in office. But to get into the Senate, Clelland, who voted with the Republican majority a number of times during his two years in the House, will first have to beat two other Democrats, including Linda Stewart, another former state representative who is adored by liberal voting blocks in Orlando, including environmentalists and LGBT activists. The Democratic nominee will be favored to win a race against Republican opponent Dean Asher, a former Florida Realtor president whose campaign is being financed by the industry.

Battleground District

District 37 (Miami-Dade) — A Republican incumbent in this majority Hispanic district, Sen. Miguel Diaz de la Portilla, is trying to fend off Democratic state Rep. Jose Javier Rodriguez. Diaz de la Portilla has been among the more moderate Republicans in the Senate. He single-handedly blocked legislation this year that would have allowed people to openly carry guns and to bring concealed weapons onto college campuses. But Democratic Party leaders believe Rodriguez could be a future candidate for statewide office.

Internal Battle

District 40 (Miami-Dade County) — Democrats are in the midst of a minor civil war for this seat, which, like Districts 37 and 39, is majority Hispanic. The candidates include incumbent Democratic Sen. Dwight Bullard; Ana Rivas Logan, a former state representative who was a Republican but became a Democrat; and Andrew Korge, the son of a national Democratic Party fundraiser who initially planned to run in District 39 but switched districts at the last minute. Whoever survives will then face a tough general election campaign against Republican state Rep. Frank Artiles, who has led the battle to limit which bathrooms transKey West gender Floridians can use.

Florida House of Representatives

The Bottom Line

There are nearly two dozen current members of the state House running for seats this year in the state Senate — meaning plenty of turnover in the Legislature’s lower chamber, too. But Republicans command a much stronger majority in the 120-member House (81-39), and lawmakers weren’t forced to change the state House boundaries.

Altogether, there are only about 10 competitive general election House races around the state and, even in the best-case scenario for Democrats, they are unlikely to tip the scale in the House too far. As is often the case, some of the most important House elections are primaries, where several races pit business-backed candidates against others financed by trial lawyers.

Some primaries will have an outsized impact on the race to become House Speaker after the 2022 elections. Three people are currently seen as the leading contenders for that post: Rep. Paul Renner (R-Palm Coast), whose candidacy is being promoted by the Jacksonville business community; Rep. Jamie Grant (R-Tampa), a close friend and political ally of incoming House Speaker Richard Corcoran; and Randy Fine, a Melbourne Beach businessman running for a seat in Brevard County. (Renner and Grant were elected early in out-of-cycle special elections.)