By Oriana Diaz | UF News
Consumer sentiment in Florida declined for the fourth consecutive month in June, falling 1.8 points to 71.1 from a revised figure of 72.9 in May. In contrast, national consumer sentiment increased.
“Consumer sentiment among Floridians has fallen by 8 points over the past four months, reaching its lowest level in two years, since May 2024. Looking at the first half of the year, all five components of the index declined, with expectations about the national economy over the next year experiencing the sharpest deterioration. This widespread pessimism coincides with the reemergence of inflation, which continues to strain household budgets. Because prices spiked in everyday categories such as gasoline, consumers are feeling a constant pinch that contributes to a more pessimistic outlook,” said Hector H. Sandoval, Ph.D., director of the Economic Analysis Program at the University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
Among the five components that make up the index, four decreased and one increased.
Floridians’ views regarding current economic conditions were mixed in June. Views of personal financial situations now compared with a year ago fell 2.1 points, from 66.9 to 64.8. However, these views varied across demographic groups, with women and people younger than 60 reporting more favorable assessments. In contrast, opinions about whether now is a good time to buy a major household item, such as a refrigerator or furniture, increased slightly by six-tenths of a point, from 62.4 to 63. These views also varied across sociodemographic groups, with people aged 60 and older and people with an annual income over $50,000 expressing less favorable opinions.
Floridians’ expectations about future economic conditions weakened in June. Expectations of personal financial situations a year from now fell 1.3 points, from 85.2 to 83.9. Expectations regarding U.S. economic conditions over the next year dropped 3.6 points, from 72.8 to 69.2, the largest decline among all components this month. Meanwhile, expectations regarding U.S. economic conditions over the next five years declined 2.5 points, from 77 to 74.5. These views were broadly shared across sociodemographic groups. However, people younger than 60 reported relatively more optimistic views across all three components. In addition, people with an annual income over $50,000 expressed more favorable expectations regarding their future personal financial situation.
“Although gasoline prices have eased from their spring peak as tensions in the Middle East have moderated, some uncertainty surrounding the conflict remains. Nonetheless, recent declines in fuel prices are welcome news for Floridians, particularly as peak summer travel approaches. At the same time, while the national labor market has remained resilient, Florida’s labor market has softened, with the state’s unemployment rate remaining above the national average. This weaker labor market means Florida households remain more sensitive to inflation and broader economic uncertainty,” said Sandoval.
“Looking ahead, consumer confidence could improve if inflationary pressures ease, providing some relief to household budgets, while labor market conditions remain stable. Together, these conditions could support a recovery in consumer sentiment,” Sandoval added.
Conducted May 1 to June 25, the UF study reflects the responses of 394 individuals who were reached on cellphones representing a demographic cross section of Florida.
Data are weighted based on Florida county of residence, age group and sex to ensure representativeness of the Florida population. The population figures used for weighting (targets) are obtained from the Population Program of the Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR), which produces the official population estimates for the state of Florida. Phone data quality is maintained by monitoring and reviewing interviews and prevention of duplicate records.
The index used by UF researchers is benchmarked to 1966, which means a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year. The lowest index possible is 2, and the highest is 150.
Details of this month’s survey can be found at https://www.bebr.ufl.edu/florida-consumer-sentiment/