"When you’re in a period of very rapid change, forecast models aren’t going to be very reliable about what’s happening next."
Hurricane experts piecing together what the upcoming storm season may hold for Florida have been looking for clues in an ocean thousands of miles away.
This month, federal scientists said it’s more likely than not that an El Niño will form in the Pacific Ocean by peak hurricane season. The weather pattern, which is unfavorable to Atlantic hurricanes, should persist through the end of the year, they said.
The prediction could bode well for Floridians who were spared last year after a string of major storms walloped the Gulf Coast in 2023 and 2024.
Researchers at Colorado State University, a leading hurricane forecaster, said they are anticipating a “somewhat below-average” season, largely due to the likely presence of a strong El Niño. Its potential strength is still up for debate, experts said.
The coming atmospheric shift could bring a “super El Niño,” according to most models. At least one model expects it to be record-breaking.
But experts said it was too early to tell — spring forecasts of this weather cycle are historically inaccurate.
Read more at the Tampa Bay Times