By Oriana Diaz | UF News
Consumer sentiment among Floridians declined for the second consecutive month, falling 3.5 points in April, to 74.6, from a revised figure of 78.1 in March. Similarly, national sentiment declined 3.5 points over the month.
“The decline in sentiment is not unexpected, as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has triggered a global energy shock. This has led to a sharp rise in gasoline prices and renewed inflationary pressures, with monthly inflation posting its largest acceleration since 2022. These rising costs are straining household finances, even as the broader labor market remains relatively stable. However, Florida’s unemployment rate is now higher than the national average, a trend not seen since 2020. Against this backdrop, Floridians are feeling less confident about their financial situations, which helps explain the weakening in consumer sentiment,” said Hector H. Sandoval, director of the Economic Analysis Program at University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
All five components that make up the index declined in April.
Floridians’ opinions about current economic conditions weakened in April. Views of personal financial situations now compared with a year ago fell sharply 4.1 points, from 74.6 to 70.5. Similarly, opinions on whether now is a good time to buy a big-ticket item, such as a refrigerator or furniture, decreased 2.1 points, from 65.6 to 63.5. These views varied across sociodemographic groups, with men and people ages 60 and older reporting more favorable assessments of their current financial situation. For spending intentions, people ages 60 and older expressed more favorable views, while men reported no change.
Floridians’ expectations about future economic conditions also deteriorated. Expectations of personal financial situations a year from now declined 2.6 points, from 90.8 to 88.2. Expectations regarding U.S. economic conditions over the next year experienced the steepest drop, falling 6.4 points, from 79.8 to 73.4. Meanwhile, expectations of U.S. economic conditions over the next five years decreased 2.1 points, from 79.6 to 77.5. These changes varied across demographic groups without a clear overall pattern. People ages 60 and older reported more favorable expectations regarding their personal finances, while men expressed relatively more positive views about the short-run national outlook. For the longer-term outlook, men, people ages 60 and older, and people with an annual income under $50,000 reported more positive expectations.
“The sharp decline in short-term expectations for the national economy is notable and suggests that Floridians are bracing for potential economic turbulence. This shift in expectations may lead to more cautious financial behavior, which could risk slowing down economic activity in the near term,” said Sandoval.
“Looking ahead, economic conditions and consumer expectations will depend in part on developments in the Middle East and the extent to which energy markets stabilize. Prolonged volatility in energy markets could drive up transportation costs further and trigger new inflationary pressures, which could continue to strain household budgets and dampen consumer confidence in the coming months,” Sandoval added.
Conducted from March 1 to April 23, the UF study reflects the responses of 312 individuals who were reached on cellphones representing a demographic cross section of Florida.
Data are weighted based on Florida county of residence, age group, and sex to ensure representativeness of the Florida population. The population figures used for weighting (targets) are obtained from the Population Program of the Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR), which produces the official population estimates for the state of Florida. Phone data quality is maintained by monitoring and reviewing interviews and the prevention of duplicate records.
The index used by UF researchers is benchmarked to 1966, which means a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year. The lowest index possible is 2, and the highest is 150.
Details of this month’s survey can be found at bebr.ufl.edu/florida-consumer-sentiment/.