By Oriana Diaz | UF News
Consumer sentiment in Florida declined in March for the first time in 2026, falling one point to 78.1 from a revised figure of 79.1 in February. National consumer sentiment also declined, decreasing 3.3 points over the month.
“This month’s decline was driven primarily by reduced spending intentions and growing concerns about the national economy, particularly over the next 12 months. At the same time, some indicators remained positive, as Floridians reported improved views of their current personal financial situation and stronger expectations for their finances over the next year. These mixed signals are consistent with a more uncertain economic environment. In March, the labor market showed signs of softening, with job losses reported and the national unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, while annual inflation remained relatively stable at 2.4%. At the same time, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East contributed to higher oil prices, raising concerns about renewed inflationary pressures and increased costs for households and businesses. Against this backdrop, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady again, signaling caution as it tries to balance a slowing economy and ongoing inflation risks,” said Hector H. Sandoval, director of the Economic Analysis Program at University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
Among the five components that make up the index, three declined and two increased.
Floridians’ opinions about current economic conditions were mixed. Opinions of personal financial situations now compared with a year ago increased slightly four-tenths of a point, from 74.4 to 74.8. However, these views varied across sociodemographic groups, with men, people younger than 60, and people with an annual income under $50,000 expressing more pessimistic views. In contrast, opinions about whether this is a good time to buy a major household item, such as a refrigerator or furniture, dropped sharply by 3.8 points, from 68.6 to 64.8, the largest decline among all components this month. Notably, this decline was observed across all sociodemographic groups.
Expectations about future economic conditions were also mixed, with views regarding the national economy becoming more pessimistic in March. Expectations of personal financial situations one year from now increased 1.1 points, from 90 to 91.1, although men and people with an annual income above $50,000 reported less favorable views. In contrast, expectations regarding U.S. economic conditions over the next year decreased 1.9 points, from 82.3 to 80.4, while expectations for U.S. economic conditions over the next five years declined slightly by four-tenths of a point, from 79.9 to 79.5. These views about the national economy were broadly shared across Floridians. However, individuals with annual incomes under $50,000 expressed more optimistic views about the short-run national outlook, while men and people younger than 60 reported more optimistic views regarding the long-term outlook.
“Looking ahead, the decline in spending intentions, combined with weaker expectations about future economic conditions, suggests that Floridians are becoming more cautious. Moreover, if geopolitical tensions persist and energy markets remain volatile, higher gasoline and energy costs could place additional pressure on household budgets. At the same time, a softer labor market may limit income growth, further weighing on consumer confidence. Monitoring these developments will be important to assess whether this month’s decline represents a temporary adjustment or the beginning of a broader shift in consumer sentiment,” said Sandoval.
Conducted Feb.1 to March 26, the University of Florida study reflects the responses of 314 individuals who were reached on cellphones representing a demographic cross section of Florida.
Data are weighted based on Florida county of residence, age group, and sex to ensure representativeness of the Florida population. The population figures used for weighting (targets) are obtained from the Population Program of the Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR), which produces the official population estimates for the state of Florida. Phone data quality is maintained by monitoring and reviewing interviews and preventing duplicate records.
The index used by UF researchers is benchmarked to 1966, which means a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year. The lowest index possible is 2, and the highest is 150.
Details of this month’s survey can be found at bebr.ufl.edu/florida-consumer-sentiment.