GAINESVILLE, Fla. — After three consecutive months of declines, consumer sentiment among Floridians grew in May, increasing 3.7 points to 81 from a revised figure of 77.3 in April. In contrast, national sentiment remained unchanged.
“Consumer confidence had declined sharply in recent months, largely driven by falling spending intentions and growing pessimism about the national economy. In May, however, the rebound in sentiment was supported by a marked improvement in both Floridians’ willingness to make big-ticket purchases and their long-term outlook on the U.S. economy. This shift is likely tied to the easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and China earlier in the month, which included a reduction in tariffs on Chinese imports. These changes have likely eased some of the pessimism fueled by earlier tariff hikes,” said Hector Sandoval, director of the Economic Analysis Program at UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
Floridians’ views on current economic conditions strengthened in May. Opinions of personal financial situations now compared with a year ago grew 3.5 points from 68.5 to 72.
Similarly, opinions on whether now is a good time to buy a big-ticket item, such as furniture or appliances, increased 5.4 points from 68.5 to 73.9, marking the largest gain among all components this month.
These more positive views were broadly shared across sociodemographic groups, except for people age 60 and older, who reported more negative views on their financial situation.
Expectations about future economic conditions also improved. Expectations of personal finances a year from now rose 1.5 points from 89.1 to 90.6. However, views were divided across sociodemographic groups, with women, people 60 and older, and people with an annual income under $50,000 expressing more pessimistic expectations.
Meanwhile, expectations about U.S. economic conditions over the next year rose 2.4 points from 78.4 to 80.8. Similarly, views on U.S. economic conditions over the next five years surged 5.3 points from 82.2 to 87.5. These optimistic outlooks about the national economy were shared across all demographic groups.
Economic activity in Florida remains generally positive. The labor market continues to expand, both nationally and in the state, with steady job gains. Moreover, the latest inflation data show signs of improvement, with annual inflation measures moving closer to the Fed’s 2% target.
“However, trade tensions and uncertainty around trade policy persist. While there has been some easing, the outlook remains unclear. The possibility of new tariffs hikes still looms, and recent legal disputes have added further uncertainty,” said Sandoval.
“Looking ahead, this continued uncertainty is likely to weigh on consumer confidence in the months to come,” Sandoval added.
Conducted April 1 to May 29, the UF study reflects the responses of 304 individuals who were reached on cellphones and 296 individuals reached through an online panel, a total of 600 individuals, representing a demographic cross section of Florida.