General Gain, Concentrated Pain
In 2023, economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City looked at the pluses and minuses of recreational marijuana legalization across states nationwide. Their research suggests its modest economic benefits are broadly distributed while the social cost is borne by heavy marijuana consumers. On balance, increased tax revenue from marijuana sales was offset by drops in alcohol and tobacco tax revenue, their paper said. Post-legalization, the average state saw house prices rise by 6%, population rise by 2%, and per capita income grow by 3%, mostly because of higher proprietors’ income. Meanwhile, substance use disorders, chronic homelessness and arrests increased by 17%, 35% and 13%, respectively. That bodes ill for labor force participation and worker productivity. Self-reported marijuana use increased by 28% post-legalization. Problem: The rate of substance use disorder over time becomes larger as legalization “introduces cannabis to consumers, which serves as a gateway to use of more addictive illicit substances.”
Bad news for Florida and other late adopters: The social costs were similar across states but Washington and Colorado, the early ones to legalize, saw larger economic gains than later states. Late adopting states still have to deal with higher social costs, but economic benefits are “more muted,” the authors wrote.
Law & Order Redux
If voters endorse recreational pot in November, legislators will regulate where and how it can be used. Florida has no experience with a legal recreational marijuana market. But it does have extensive and mixed experience with decriminalizing pot possession.
Beginning in 2015, prosecutors in some Florida urban areas announced they wouldn’t pursue criminal charges for possessing small amounts. Broward is one such county. On a random day in May, no one in the county jail was serving time for standalone possession. Several Florida cities and counties also made possession of small amounts a civil-citation offense or gave officers the latitude to issue a citation rather than bring a misdemeanor criminal charge.
Two of those local governments now regret it. The city of Sarasota in 2019 decided possessing less than 20 grams would bring a civil citation with a $100 fine or 10 hours of community service. Through February, city police issued 535 citations. Only 11.8% were paid or saw community service performed. Some 88.2% were ignored. The city’s elected leaders moved to make it a crime again but decided to await the outcome of the November legalization vote.
Miami Beach, meanwhile, grew tired of the weed smell as consumers ignored public use rules. “The optional $100 civil penalty didn’t deter public marijuana use. Instead, people were emboldened to disregard our laws,” says Miami Beach Mayor Steven Meiner. This year, the city re-criminalized marijuana possession.
The Black Market
Pot amendment proponents say legalization will mean safe, quality, regulated marijuana for consumers rather than potentially tainted black-market marijuana. Marijuana consumers in states that have legalized have shown they’re quite willing to abandon safety for price. Much has to do with how much profit legal companies want to make and also how a state regulates the legal market, accessibility to stores and the size of the tax burden, as regulatory and compliance costs on their own make legal pot more expensive than illegal marijuana. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul has called her state’s regulatory program a “disaster.” Illicit shops dominate retail sales. Maine’s congressional delegation says illegal operators — some, perhaps many, financed by Chinese investors — outnumber licensed ones. The delegation asked the federal Justice Department for help. In other states — industry reports cite Washington — pressure by the state on the black market led to a flourishing licensed industry.
DUI
Florida from 2018 through 2022 saw far more alcohol-related vehicle crashes than marijuana-related ones — 25,017 vs. 2,411 — but the fatalities in each category were closer: 1,964 for alcohol vs 1,892 fatalities for marijuana. Marijuana was implicated in 2,080 non-fatal injuries. The most common age group for drugged driving was 25 to 29, and marijuana was the drug of choice. Marijuana was also the top choice for ages 10 to 24.
Source: Florida Department of Law Enforcement
Drug Tests Positivity and Cheating Soars
Positive drug tests for marijuana among the U.S. workforce increased in 2023 to 4.5%, according to Quest Diagnostics’ analysis of 9.8 million drug tests it conducted. Post-accident marijuana positives climbed to 7.5%, a 114.3% increase since 2015. Quest also found drug test cheating increased six-fold in 2023 to the highest rate it’s seen in its more than 30 years of reporting.
For all drugs, positivity reached the highest level in more than 20 years. “It is possible that our society’s normalization of drug use is fostering environments in which some employees feel it is acceptable to use such drugs without truly understanding the impact they have on workplace safety,” says Suhash Harwani, Quest senior director of science for workforce health solutions. An American Medical Association journal study in February found recreational marijuana sales were associated with a 10% increase in workplace injuries for those 20 to 34 but noted earlier research found a decline in workers comp and nontraumatic injuries among older workers, suggesting marijuana helped older workers manage pain.
Health Insights
The question in 2016 when Florida voters approved medical marijuana was over the plant’s potential in addressing illness. This year, the debate shifts to the degree of harm marijuana causes when used like booze or tobacco for recreation. The industry’s answer: Not as bad as alcohol. But the long-term health effects of regular marijuana use are debated — and some researchers see warning signs, with evidence showing it’s addictive and contributes to mental health problems, stroke, heart attacks and gum disease. For a closer look at the health ramifications go to floridatrend.com/cannabis.
High Floridians
The National Drug Use Survey estimates 18% of Floridians 18 and older used marijuana in the last year — 13% in the last month. (53% used alcohol in the last month while 15% smoked cigarettes.) For comparison, in 2014-15, 13% of adult Floridians used marijuana in the last year and 8% in the last month.
More Potent
The average THC content in cannabis seized by the federal Drug Enforcement Administration in 1995 was 4%. The average in 2021 was 15%. Florida-based marijuana company Trulieve says plants at its new grow facility in Jefferson County average 28% THC potency.
Trulieve CEO Kim Rivers talks with legislators and told analysts in May that she believes Florida “can set an example for other markets demonstrating how to implement a well-crafted adult use program without opening the floodgates for illicit market activity.”