Lesley Deutch, managing principal at John Burns Researching and Consulting in Boca Raton, follows all things Florida residential real estate. FLORIDA TREND caught up with her on one of her many travels across the state.
Q. Tell us why you’re traveling so much.
A. I'm doing a lot of speeches these days, which is good. There’s a lot of uncertainty in Florida and in the real estate world. No one really knows what’s going on these days.
Q. I would have thought the trajectory is, we’ve got to build.
A. So the trajectory is still positive. But affordability has become a very, very big concern. The builders are combatting that by buying down the rates and getting people in for lower monthly payments. But the re-sale inventory, especially in Florida, has really ticked up a lot. While the new home builders won’t say it’s become more competition, you’re starting to see the sales rate slow — still positive year-over-year but slower. So I do think there’s some inkling that there could be some chinks in the armor.
Q. Are they starting to cut back on lot purchases?
A. The builders are still buying, and they’re looking to tie up land. Look, I don’t want to come off as too negative. They’re still selling homes at a pretty good clip. I’m watching the trend more than the actual number. They’re still pretty optimistic. To be fair, it’s very regional. The Tampa builders are doing great. The Fort Myers builders are slower.
Q. Elaborate on the markets.
A. Tampa, Orlando and Sarasota are probably still the strongest. As is Southeast Florida — Palm Beach, Broward, Dade. Southwest Florida has slowed a lot. Also their re-sale inventory is up pretty significantly. Jacksonville — it’s getting a little bit slower. Jacksonville has always been a very affordable market and now it’s just become unaffordable in most areas.
Q. Housing design?
A. Builders are experimenting more. The one trend I’ve seen, especially on the affordable side, you can’t use that much architectural detail because you’re trying to keep the home prices down. So people are using color or just inexpensive ways to make the house yours. You’re seeing a little more color come into the exterior of the home. A lot more nooks for working at home. It doesn’t have to be giant offices, but smaller spaces for that. And everyone in Florida still likes their garages.
Q. Talk about what you’re seeing at the master-planned communities.
A. Master-planned communities are actually doing pretty well. They’re the ones that have benefited from a lot of the in-migration because the lifestyle is great. They get the families and then they get the grandparents coming to be with the families. They’re being very clever — I was just giving a talk about this — with their amenities, because master-plans really appeal to a lot of the people that are working from home, a lot of the young people. So there are bigger social spaces — where people can gather because when they’re working from home, they tend to get a little lonely sometimes. My ending slide was, ‘Bring more closer to home.’ Be able to have social gatherings — providing your errands and retail within your community.
Q. Any stand out?
A. I think Lakewood Ranch is doing a really good job with the social aspect of the master-plan amenities- wise. They're doing a really good job creating great spaces for young and old. … I’ve seen a lot of success with the Crystal Lagoons. It’s been a huge attraction to people. … Lake Nona over in Orlando — consistently innovating. I always look to Lake Nona for the latest and greatest. … In Palm Beach County, GL Homes — they are really understanding who their consumer is and what they want. So they've done a lot of great stuff recently for the 55-plus. They're doing resistance pools and pickleball courts and things like that. … Wellen Park in Venice. It’s one of the fastest-selling in the country. They've got a lot of good product. They do build-to-rent, Lennar’s building a golf course there, they’ve got family product, empty-nester product. And they’ve built an entire town center on a lake. It started as an affordable alternative to Lakewood Ranch, and now it’s coming to its own. They built the whole master plan around a spring training facility. And they have all kinds of fairs and other things going on. … They say the amenities of the future are all going to be about adventure and experience and doing things together with your family. It used to be you would go out to the town, but now the town is coming to you.
Q. And the inventory of new homes?
A. The inventory of finished homes is creeping up. It’s not concerning yet. So the actual number is pretty low. But we’re watching trends at this point.
Q. It’s probably the first time in years the trend hasn't been—
A. Nothing available, right? It's a new world now. There are things available. … An interesting trend is people are moving still, but they're moving within Florida. And they’re moving to a more affordable market. So the biggest out-migration in Tampa right now is to Lakeland. Polk County is booming because it’s so affordable. And the biggest out-migration in Orlando is to Daytona and the biggest outmigration in Palm Beach is St. Lucie.
Q. How are the super-themed? How are the Margaritavilles doing?
A. They’re killing it. They're setting the standard for really, really rapid sales.