Northeast Florida's economic forecast for 2024

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What’s in Store for 2024

• TOURISM

Michael Corrigan
President and CEO, Visit Jacksonville, Jacksonville

STAFFING CHALLENGES: “Many businesses, including hotels, adjusted business practices to help minimize the impact of staffing challenges. We believe this trend will continue. Some of those adjustments may become permanent practices, like cleaning the room every second or third night instead of every night, no longer offering turndown services, limiting free breakfast and eliminating evening reception offerings.”

OPPORTUNITIES: “We have an opportunity to continue to host and attract special events. Concert and comedian touring has increased over the last couple of years, and Jacksonville has been fortunate to have some major headliners at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena and EverBank Stadium. On the sports side, our world-class facilities and venues have been a draw for the UFC, the Savannah Bananas, neutral-site college football games, track and field championships and surfing competitions, not to mention the continued success of the NFL’s Jacksonville Jaguars.”

NON-PROFITS

Mari Kuraishi
President, Jessie Ball DuPont Fund, Jacksonville

WORKFORCE TRENDS: “In the nonprofit sector at large, I see a huge demand for financial talent. That’s probably explained by the fact that people with financial expertise are in huge demand in the for-profit space, which compensates at a higher level. It also plays out in issues like non-profits not being able to find auditors to carry out financial audits for them, despite being willing to pay market rates, because audit firms simply do not have the people to carry out all the audits being demanded of them. In the local context, I am also seeing a high demand for marketing and communications talent. Communications and marketing are the lifeblood of non-profit organizations, who have to be in constant communication with the people they serve and their donors.”

OPPORTUNITIES: “Based on research carried out by Indiana University’s Lilly School of Philanthropy, there is donor interest in issues related to the environment, but relatively few environmental organizations meeting that demand. I’d say there’s scope for national or regional non-profits to extend their work here, or for new organizations to be started up to address those issues in our region.”

• HEALTH CARE

Pat Geraghty
CEO, GuideWell Mutual Holding Corp. and Florida Blue, Jacksonville

“The American health care industry is facing more pressure than ever before. Inflationary pressures, pharmacy costs, labor tensions and health systems focused on recovering from a years-long pandemic continue to drive rising costs. Increased health care prices put more pressure on consumers, who in turn are demanding greater choice and transparency to get the best value out of their health plans. The health care system continues to be fragmented and confusing, which can drive dissatisfaction, poor health outcomes, increased waste and duplicative services. On top of that, we’re facing a shortage of physicians and other providers as hospitals and health systems struggle to attract and retain staff. Many doctors, nurses and other health workers are leaving the industry altogether due to burnout and frustration with the state of the industry.

There are some bright spots. Artificial intelligence has tremendous potential to help increase operational efficiencies, support medical research and improve the quality of care. There has also been an increased focus on supporting mental well-being by helping to fight the stigma many have around seeking behavioral health treatment, which will improve overall health outcomes.”

Gateway Jax

Gateway Jax, a commercial real estate venture backed by DLP Capital and JWB Real Estate Capital, has a wide range of plans for more than 20 city blocks in downtown Jacksonville’s North Core.

Gateway Jax has acquired 22 acres in downtown and plans a $500-million, mixed-use build-out in the first phase of development. The first-phase plans include three buildings along Pearl Street with 1,000- plus multifamily units, more than 120,000 square feet of retail (including a grocery store anchor) and public spaces. The company is expected to break ground in mid-2024.

Other plans over time for the redevelopment include interconnected neighborhoods, offices, hotels and green corridors that lead to waterfront amenities. The development also will honor the city’s “micro-neighborhoods” through architecture, art and design. An estimated $2 billion will be spent on the development of the area — one of the largest urban core revitalizations — over the next decade.

Leaders at Gateway Jax, including CEO Bryan Moll, previously helped steer the development of Water Street Tampa, a $4-billion mixed-use project. They also were behind the National Landing development — the site of Amazon’s HQ2 — in Northern Virginia.

• AIR TRAVEL

Allan Penksa
CEO, Gainesville Regional Airport

“With respect to the airport, we will soon embark on a new master plan to best position ourselves for opportunities for larger aircraft maintenance facilities and potential air freight services. We will start by maximizing available land and investing in infrastructure, including stormwater facilities, and advanced permitting to make for quick and easy development.

The Gainesville area offers tremendous opportunities for companies that wish to take advantage of the tremendous research, innovation and creativity that exists at the University of Florida. We have a large and growing medical and biosciences community both in Gainesville and the nearby city of Alachua. There is tremendous team spirit among our chamber, local government and businesses to assist new business prospects. I see additional potential in software development, new materials and manufacturing processes that are researched at the university and brought to market. This is definitely the place to incubate new ideas.”

• BANKING

Steve Fisher
Regional president, Florida North, Truist Commercial Community Bank, Orlando

“Overall, the banking industry continues to evolve, reflecting the broader changes in the economy to more digital transactions and increasingly on mobile devices. In the near term, the industry remains challenged on several fronts, primarily from rising deposit costs and weakening lending trends, especially for real estate. On the residential side, consumers are being confronted with both higher mortgage rates and higher home prices.

Meanwhile, the office segment within commercial real estate is struggling with reduced demand since the pandemic as a significant chunk of workers haven’t returned to the office more than a few days a week. The rest of commercial real estate — such as retail, lodging, multifamily residential and industrial — remains solid.”

• TRANSPORTATION

Nathaniel P. Ford Sr.
CEO, Jacksonville Transportation Authority, Jacksonville

“Artificial Intelligence, automation and other technologies are profoundly impacting the transportation industry. We’re seeing the beginning of a shift towards autonomous vehicles, and JTA is capitalizing on this shift with projects like the Ultimate Urban Circulator, which aims to transform our current 2.5-mile Skyway system into a 10-mile autonomous network. This network will not only enhance connectivity within our downtown core but will also increase travel efficiency and safety for the citizens of Jacksonville, while serving as a cost-effective alternative.

It is essential to recognize that while technology brings efficiency and innovation, it also necessitates a transformation in skill sets. For example, maintenance technicians would need to become proficient in calibrating systems for autonomous vehicles. This technological shift isn’t just about maintaining new types of vehicles; it’s about taking a holistic approach to how we manage and interact with our entire transportation ecosystem.”

Business Briefs

ALACHUA COUNTY

• The University of Florida College of Veterinary Medicine recently began an open-heart surgery program for dogs. Officials say it is the only program in the U.S. to offer canine mitral valve repair. The UF Small Animal Hospital’s open-heart surgery team performs about three to four surgeries every month.

BRADFORD COUNTY

• North Florida Technical College will have a new area for its commercial vehicle driving school, made possible with a 230-acre property acquisition by the North Florida Land Trust, Camp Blanding and the Bradford County School Board. The land was bought from Rayonier for a little over $1.8 million.

CLAY COUNTY

• Clay County officials have opened a 200-yard, 30-target outdoor gun range in Middleburg as part of the county’s Outdoor Adventure Park. The gun range is open to both law enforcement and the public. Located on 158 acres, county officials are exploring other possible uses for the park, including an archery field, paintball and fishing.

DUVAL COUNTY

• Florida Gulf and Atlantic Railroad of Jacksonville has been awarded $23.2 million in funding from the Federal Railroad Administration toward track improvements and upgrades along a 100-mile stretch of the company’s main rail line in the Panhandle.
• The Jacksonville Historical Society has begun renovations for its new history center downtown, to be located in the former Florida Casket Co. The 13,500-sq.-ft. location, built in 1920, will include an exhibit that pays homage to Jacksonville’s songwriters and singers. The first part of the renovation should be finished by this spring.
• Jacksonville University has announced a bachelor’s in engineering management degree to help meet increasing demand within the industry.

FLAGLER COUNTY

• The Flagler Playhouse in Bunnell was destroyed by a fire in late October. It had been part of the community since the late 1970s.

GILCHRIST COUNTY

• Gilchrist County has a new newspaper after more than a year without one. The Gilchrist County Herald was started by Matthew Harrell, who previously covered sports and school board meetings for the Gilchrist County Journal, which closed in January 2022.

LEVY COUNTY

• Gov. Ron DeSantis’ office announced $700,000 in additional funds will be available for small business owners in the Big Bend region, including those who work in aquaculture, to help rebuild their business after Hurricane Idalia. The funding is available through the Florida Disaster Fund. In Levy County, Idalia affected 203 aquaculture businesses. The funds are in addition to $5 million set aside through the Emergency Bridge Loan Program that is dedicated to aquaculture and agriculture small businesses.

MARION COUNTY

• The College of Central Florida has broken ground on its CF Center for Nursing, a $20-million capital expansion project with funding from the Florida Legislature, the Marion County Hospital District and the Marion County Commission. The program will serve 325 associate and bachelor’s students, with the center’s first classes expected to start in January 2025. The College of Central Florida also will add health science degree programs in diagnostic medical sonography technology and respiratory care in 2024.

ST. JOHNS COUNTY

• While digging for drainage maintenance, Florida Department of Transportation crews discovered a nearly intact 19th century fishing vessel near the Bridge of Lions in St. Augustine. It was likely used for extracting shellfish and fish from coastal areas. Flagler College in St. Augustine announced a fundraising campaign, Flagler Forward, to raise $65 million in private philanthropy. The college also recently announced a $35-million investment from the state of Florida to restore the former Hotel Ponce de Leon, which is a National Historic Landmark.

NASSAU COUNTY

• The Nassau Crossing Endoscopy Center and Borland Groover Medical Office will join the Baptist Nassau Crossing Medical Campus in Yulee by fall 2024. Baptist Health broke ground on the 56,588-sq.-ft. campus in March 2023. It also will include a freestanding Baptist & Wolfson Emergency Center along with outpatient imaging, primary care, behavioral health and specialist offices.

DUVAL COUNTY

• Patriot Transportation Holding of Jacksonville agreed to a buyout by United Petroleum Transports of Oklahoma City in a $65.9-million deal. United Petroleum transports fuel in seven other states; the move will help expand its presence in the Southeast. Business through Patriot will continue to operate under the Florida Rock & Tank Lines name. When the buyout is complete this year, Patriot, a publicly held company, will become private.

Tags: Economic Outlook, Feature