Central Florida's economic forecast for 2024

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Sports and Entertainment District

The Orlando Magic’s planned sports and entertainment district is moving forward with the addition of two developers experienced in sports-related venues. San Francisco-based JMA Ventures and Houston-based Machete Group have joined the effort to create a downtown Orlando entertainment district next to the Amway Center, home to the NBA franchise. Plans call for a 260-room hotel with conference space, 270 residential units, 200,000 square feet of office space, 125,000 square feet of retail space, a live event venue and an urban town square. A groundbreaking is slated for late 2024.

What’s in Store for 2024

• REAL ESTATE

Imran Mohamed
President, Osceola County Association of Realtors, Kissimmee

“Pending decisions in lawsuits between the Department of Justice and the National Association of Realtors can dramatically change the landscape and will force an overhaul in the thinking and practice of the real estate industry. To survive, real estate agents and Realtors would have to be nimble enough to adapt and reimagine how they do business.

I also expect to see a gradual reduction of interest rates, and while I don’t think we will get there in early 2024, I do feel that buyers will start becoming more optimistic as rates approach the 5% range. There is already an uptick in the residential housing inventory and as we go into 2024, this number is expected to increase; this supply-demand dynamic will favor some price stabilization.

On the commercial side, our area is seeing reduced activities in the retail and office space sectors, but other areas like industrial, warehousing, etc. are still holding. This is driven by the fact that the Central Florida area has a number of solid desirables that businesses look for; a highly educated workforce, vacant lands, etc.”

• HOSPITALITY

John Geller

CEO, Marriott Vacations Worldwide, Orlando

“Over the last five years, the short-term vacation rental industry has seen a huge growth. A big part of this has been ‘bleisure’ travel: With so many people able to work remotely since the start of the pandemic, people are taking vacations without taking as much time off of work — they can work from anywhere, and they are — and there’s no indication of that slowing down in 2024. This trend, too, deems true for the vacation ownership industry, where our owners and guests are looking for more space and longer stays — so our accommodations are really fitting for this segment.”

• HIGHER EDUCATION

Kathleen Plinske
President, Valencia College, Orlando

WORKFORCE TRENDS: “The labor market remains tight, and we continue to hear from employers that they struggle to find qualified individuals to fill job openings. This is one of the reasons I am so bullish about Valencia’s Accelerated Skills Training (AST) programs, which prepare individuals with the skills that employers are seeking in a matter of weeks, rather than years. Our largest AST program is our Commercial Driver’s License (CDL) training, in which individuals can complete the training and earn a CDL in four weeks — and then enjoy a greater than 90% job placement rate. We also offer accelerated programs in the areas of advanced manufacturing, construction, health care and logistics.”

Downtown DeBary

DeBary’s long-planned downtown project will start taking shape in 2024, with a pair of key projects expected to break ground by April. The two housing/retail projects — one by Boca Raton-based Falcone & Associates and the other by St. Petersburg-based Mosaic Development — are key to the city’s dream of having a real downtown corridor near the city’s SunRail station and U.S. Highway 17-92. The renovated sector will feature streets made of pavers, lined with shops, restaurants and urban housing with balconies.

ENVIRONMENT

Traci Deen
President & CEO, Conservation Florida, Orlando

FORECAST: “Considering the historic funding and the support for the Florida Wildlife Corridor vision, the outlook for land conservation in 2024 is highly promising. With a surge in public consciousness regarding conservation and biodiversity protection, there is a growing acknowledgment of the urgent need to conserve our natural habitats.”

WORKFORCE TRENDS: “With the increasing awareness about the importance of land conservation, there is a growing demand for skilled professionals in Florida. These professionals possess expertise in areas such as environmental science, conservation biology, ecology, sustainable land management, real estate and environmental law.”

DreamWorks Land

Universal Orlando Resort is getting a makeover in 2024, with the addition of a new themed district at its original park. The DreamWorks-themed land will debut at Universal Studios Florida, though no opening date has been given, and will be built around attractions based on DreamWorks Animation’s properties, including Shrek, Trolls, Kung Fu Panda and Gabby’s Dollhouse.

• SPACE

Robert Long
President & CEO, Space Florida, Exploration Park

“Since 2021, Space Florida’s project pipeline valuation has surged from $2.9 billion to $5.5 billion, indicating bigger and more complex projects and a significant increase in demand for aerospace-related activities in the state. In fact, more than 60% of U.S. launches have been from the Cape this year, making Florida the undisputed leader in commercial space commerce and exploration. I anticipate our statewide significant business and launch cadence to grow in 2024, as the aerospace industry has rapidly shifted from exploration to increased economic activity supporting business lines such as electric vertical take-off and landing (aircraft), data protection, manufacturing and more on Earth and in space.”

Lake Nona West

Tavistock Development expects to break ground in 2024 on Lake Nona West — a 400,000-sq.-ft. lifestyle center near Lake Nona Town Center. “It will have a great mixture of entertainment and retail to attract customers who will want to stay there longer than just parachuting in to go to one store,” says Skipper Peek, the company’s senior vice president of commercial sales and development.

• HEALTH CARE

Audrey Gregory
Executive Vice President & CEO for the AdventHealth East Florida Division, Advent Health, Orange City

“The current generation of health care leaders has grappled with the toughest inflation in our industry’s history while simultaneously navigating significant staff turnover and engagement challenges… The health care industry is forecasted to continue to grow. Within acute care, continued demand for services is expected as our population ages, and with that, a demand for high acuity services. This will be coupled with further growth in the non-hospital sector, including outpatient and other non-hospital settings. We will also continue to see new entrants into the health care space that are focused on wellness, preventative care and primary care, and aimed at meeting the consumer needs, where the consumer is located. Generative AI and the use of medical AI algorithms will continue to expand into health care with far-reaching applications.

As demand grows, along with new entrants both in service and technology, the health care industry will continue to grapple with labor challenges, both in the clinical spaces and non-clinical spaces.”

Business Briefs

BREVARD COUNTY

• The first phase of the NASA Causeway Bridge has been completed. The $126-million bridge, rising 65 feet above the Indian River Lagoon, will replace one built in 1964 and used extensively to carry equipment and vehicles for the space program. The second phase is expected to open in 2026, with the work being done by Tampa-based Orion Marine Group and WSP, an engineering and design firm based in New York City.
• Brevard Zoo has reached the two-thirds mark in its quest to raise $100 million for a planned aquarium and conservation center in Cape Canaveral. The latest contribution to the effort — a $2-million donation from Ron Jon’s Founder Ron DiMenna and his wife Lynne DiMenna — will help build a beach-themed entrance complex for the center, with groundbreaking expected in the fall of 2024. Northrop Grumman is working with the U.S. Navy to modernize the cockpit and system software for the E-2D Advanced Hawkeye, used for airborne battle management. Variants of the plane have been used by air forces and navies around the world since the 1960s.
• Royal Caribbean International has started sailing its mammoth Oasis class ships on short three- and four-day trips out of Port Canaveral. The port worked over the last half of 2023 to prepare for the change by adding 1,000 more parking spaces. Allure of the Seas, the fifth largest cruise ship in the world, is the first of Royal Caribbean’s largest ships to offer the shorter itineraries out of Canaveral.

LAKE COUNTY

• Indiana-based Thompson Thrift is developing a 300-unit gated community on U.S. 441 on the northeast side of The Villages. Apartments are expected to be available by the end of 2024. The development, Standard441, is the company’s 12th in the state.

ORANGE COUNTY

• The Orange County Convention Center is set to grow again, with the Orange County Board of County Commissioners agreeing to spend $560 million in tourist taxes on an expansion. Upgrades will include an air-conditioned connection between the north and south concourses, the addition of 60,000 square feet of meeting space and an 80,000-sq.- ft. ballroom.
• Commissioners also set aside $90 million for the University of Central Florida’s stadium tower.
• Advent Health Apopka is expanding with the addition of 38 inpatient beds and four dialysis bays in the hospital’s unused fifth-floor shell space. The $26.3-million expansion, expected to be completed in May, will bring the facility’s bed count to 158 to meet growing demand in the western part of the county.
• Orlando Health is partnering with Walmart Health to coordinate the care of patients between the hospital and the retail giant’s health division. There are now 23 Walmart Health centers in the state — located next to Walmart Supercenters — offering primary care services, including lab work, X-rays, dental and behavioral health.

OSCEOLA COUNTY

• Silicon Valley business accelerator Plug and Play Tech Center is launching its Central Florida operations in January through a partnership with Osceola County, BRIDG and imec. The Sunnyvale, Calif.-based company, which connects startups, corporations, venture capital firms, universities and government agencies, will focus on semiconductor startups through NeoCity, the county’s 500- acre tech hub. Next up is a similar effort at Central Florida Research Park involving the University of Central Florida, Tavistock Development, Duke Energy and Orange County.

SEMINOLE COUNTY

• HCA Florida Healthcare’s Oviedo Medical Center is undergoing an $80-million expansion that will significantly increase its ability to handle surgical demand. The expansion will more than double the hospital’s intensive care beds and bring the total inpatient bed capacity to 102.

SUMTER COUNTY

• Heart of Florida Health Centers opened a health center in The Villages, expanding its primary care services in the region. The facility includes space donated for a veterans center in partnership with Veterans of America.

VOLUSIA COUNTY

• The National Science Foundation awarded $500,000 to Stetson University’s Jean Smith, an assistant biology professor, to support her research into cell fusion in yeast. Gaining a better understanding of yeast could provide insights into some of the functions of human cells. The grant will be used for specialized lab equipment and to support student researchers.

Tags: Economic Outlook, Feature