Southwest Florida's economic forecast for 2024

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What’s in Store for 2024

• BANKING

Mark Malone
Managing Director and Head of Investments and Advice, J.P. Morgan Private Bank in Greater Florida, Tampa

FORECAST: “Over the past few years, we have moved from a world of disinflation and ultra-easy monetary policy to one with high inflation, conventional monetary policy and rising interest rates. While England may have crowned a new king, cash continues to reign supreme here in the U.S. Since the Fed began hiking interest rates in 2021, we have seen our J.P. Morgan Private Bank clients increase their cash at the expense of stocks. While raising and holding cash has been the right decision so far (cash has outperformed both stocks and bonds for the last two-plus years), we do not expect this to continue. Right now, we are in the longest stretch of cash outperformance since the early 1980s. Buying stocks and bonds looks attractive as an opportunity for investors to reach their financial goals while taking on less risk than we have seen over the last 15 years.”

WORKFORCE: “From our lens, we have seen the growth of the Tampa Bay workforce that started pre-COVID continue to grow to this day. Specifically, within the tech space, several startups as well as established technology companies have relocated to the Tampa Bay area, which has brought with it technology executives and a growing workforce to support the company base locally. The tax benefits of working here, along with living in a vibrant city with so much to offer, makes Tampa Bay an attractive place for new professionals as well as those simply looking for a change.

We are also seeing the wealth management industry grow meaningfully over the same time period. We continue to see very talented and skilled advisors — as well as others with sales and client relationship experience — moving to the Tampa Bay region to support this rapidly growing market.”

• HIGHER EDUCATION

Aysegul Timur
President, Florida Gulf Coast University, Fort Myers

WORKFORCE TRENDS: “In Florida, the 60-plus population is growing, and health care is king. This led us to create the Shady Rest Institute on Positive Aging within FGCU’s Marieb College of Health & Human Services to develop the workforce in this field and conduct impactful research to support policy decisions… Our labor force participation rate is lower than most states, which creates a significant need for upskilling and reskilling through nontraditional and competency-based programs in partnership with employers. We put this into practice at Florida Gulf Coast University through micro-credentials and digital badges — allowing workers to gain new or improve their skills, ultimately qualifying for jobs they otherwise would not.”

CHALLENGES: “There are two challenges — affordable housing and the skills our region’s companies need from the workforce. The price of housing makes it harder to attract and keep workers in all pay brackets. At the same time, talent is essential for our industries to grow and our economy to prosper. If we don’t train the workforce to qualify for the job opportunities, companies in our state will need to bring in talent to take positions instead of hiring Floridians. We need to keep our talent here.”

On Course

Cabot Citrus Farms is set to open in 2024 with two 18-hole golf courses, a 21-hole short course, a new clubhouse and a practice facility with a putting course and driving range in a remake of the former World Woods golf destination. The plan is to build out the Brooksville property with luxury accommodations, restaurants and amenities across 1,200 acres.

Making a Splash

Great Wolf Lodge in Naples is accepting reservations for its 500 rooms in October 2024. Amenities include a 90,000 sq.-ft indoor water park, a 60,000 sq.-ft entertainment center and conference space. Parent company Great Wolf Resorts operates the largest chain of indoor water parks in North America.

• ACCOUNTING

Cristina Hale
Tampa and Orlando tax practice leader, BDO USA, Tampa

WORKFORCE TRENDS: “While Tampa has experienced substantial growth in professional service jobs over the past year, recruitment within the accounting industry continues to be a challenge nationwide as fewer college graduates are entering the profession, and over 300,000 U.S. accountants have left their jobs in the past two years.

To address this issue, employers are adopting innovative recruitment and retention strategies, including connecting with potential candidates even before they enter the workforce. Across the state, we actively collaborate with local high schools and universities to support both internship and work-study programs, providing hands-on experiences that offer insights into a firm’s business operations.”

KEY CHALLENGES: “Inflation continues to be a concern. The steady rise in prices for raw materials, energy and labor has the potential to erode profit margins, disrupt supply chains and create financial instability. Working with our clients to overcome these challenges, we employ a holistic lens to assess their business and work with them to implement agile strategies that can help them succeed, even in difficult times.”

• HEALTH CARE

Kevin Sneed
Dean, USF Health Taneja College of Pharmacy; Senior Associate Vice President, USF Health, Tampa

FORECAST: “I believe there will be some transitional moments in community/ retail pharmacy as they adjust to continued pressures being placed on the pharmacy benefits managers market. Here in the state of Florida, the Taneja College of Pharmacy will begin to promulgate the notion of ‘Proactive Analytics’ as a new paradigm in the way pharmacists engage in the health care arena. I also expect to see a push for a return of pharmaceutical manufacturing inside of the United States. My hope is that it will be done responsibly as to not disrupt or damage the environment.”

WORKFORCE: “Big box retail pharmacy is in a state of modest strife as pharmacists’ workloads following the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic continue to settle. The introduction of technology, and very likely AI-based technology, will see an uptick in the pharmacy profession. Additionally, the role of clinical pharmacists (post-graduate residency trained, similar to physician residencies) will continue to rapidly expand and increase.

Business Briefs

DESOTO COUNTY

• The Town of Nocatee and unincorporated Brownsville will use $1.7 million received through Florida’s Broadband Opportunity Grant Program to provide services to 1,313 unserved and underserved residential customers.

GLADES COUNTY

• Glades Electric Cooperative will be spending $50 million to expand broadband services within the region. The utility has secured more than $10.5 million through Florida’s Broadband Infrastructure Program in addition to two Broadband Opportunity Program awards of $5 million each. Glades Electric is partnering with rural internet service provider Conexon Connect to launch and deploy a nearly 2,600-mile fiber-to-the-home network to approximately 13,600 customers.

HARDEE COUNTY

• The Venice Diocese, in partnership with National Development of America and Hardee County, has completed Casa San Alfonso, an affordable rental housing community with 21 homes in Zolfo Springs.

HENDRY COUNTY

• The city of Clewiston Wastewater Treatment Plant will receive $11 million in federal and state funding to upgrade and expand the facility, which was constructed in the 1980s.

HERNANDO COUNTY

• Hernando County Courthouse Judicial Center renovations that began in 2022 will be complete in spring of 2024. Improvements include a revamped main lobby, additional accessible parking and expanded courtrooms.

HIGHLANDS COUNTY

• Bay Pines VA recently broke ground on a Department of Veterans Affairs clinic in Sebring. Construction will continue through 2024 with an anticipated opening date of spring 2025. The facility will span 14,600 square feet and aims to serve more than 5,000 veterans annually.

HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY

• The county will break ground on a 50,000-sq.-ft African American Arts & Culture Center to be built in the Rome Yard development on the banks of the Hillsborough River. The West Tampa project is estimated to cost $30 million.

LEE COUNTY

• The Fort Myers-based agribusiness Alico has signed a contract to sell to the state its remaining 17,000 acres of the Alico Ranch for roughly $77.6 million. Once closed, the deal will result in about 69,000 acres of the Alico Ranch having been sold for $226 million to more than two dozen buyers since 2018. Alico is the top citrus grower in the nation.

MANATEE COUNTY

• The Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport will undergo a $200-million expansion to accommodate for growth. Once the project is done, airport officials say it will be able to accommodate seven million travelers each year.

PASCO COUNTY

• Bauducco Foods, a Brazilian- based company known for their cookies and wafers, is investing in a $200-million facility in Zephyrhills, with the first of two phases being completed in 2024. The facility is expected to create 600 jobs by the time of its anticipated 2028 operating date.

PINELLAS COUNTY

• Transportation officials expect the delayed Gateway Expressway project to be completed in early 2024. The $595-million project will encompass two toll highways linking U.S. 19 and the Bayside Bridge to I-275 and toll lanes from key connector road Gandy Boulevard.

POLK COUNTY

• Publix Super Markets has promoted President Kevin Murphy to CEO to replace Todd Jones, who stepped away from the role and is now executive chairman. Jones and Murphy both climbed the ranks at the grocery chain after starting their careers as front service clerks. Senior Vice President John Goff is now president and Ed Crenshaw, who was chairman of the board of directors, remains on the board as chairman emeritus.
• Lakeland’s mixed-use development, Lake Wire, is set to be completed at the end of 2024. The 22-acre site will include 630 multifamily units and 30,000 square feet of retail space.

SARASOTA COUNTY

• One Main Plaza, a development with 424 units and a Sprouts Farmer’s Market in downtown Sarasota, is slated for completion this year.

COLLIER COUNTY

• After hurricane-related delays, Gulfshore Playhouse will debut its Baker Theatre & Education Center this year. Located at the gateway to downtown Naples, the $72-million facility has more than 40,000 square feet covering two floors with multiple lobbies and bars overlooking gardens.

CHARLOTTE COUNTY

• The Sunseeker Resort Charlotte Harbor is opening with 785 guest rooms and 189 luxury suites. Amenities include an 18-hole golf course, a 7,100-sq.-ft. fitness center, a spa, a salon and two pools.

Tags: Economic Outlook, Feature