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NAVIGATION

November 13, 2018
Tampa Skyline
Florida’s net annual population growth is roughly the equivalent of a city between the size of St. Petersburg and Tampa each year.
Ocean Drive, Miami
Ocean Drive, Miami

Average daily growth in Florida has rebounded since the recession but will slow in the coming decades. If you think Florida won’t be crowded, however, you’re mistaken: The state’s population will be about 27.4 million by 2045, about 7 million more than today.

Immigration

919 new Floridians every day

Mike Vogel | 9/27/2018

The Arithmetic

ARRIVALS

  • 1,632 People who move to Florida each day from elsewhere in the U.S.
  • 654 People who move to Florida each day from abroad
  • 613 Births
  • 2,899 Total daily arrivals

DEPARTURES

  • 1,148 People who leave Florida for other states
  • 275 People who leave Florida for other countries*
  • 557 Deaths
  • 1,980 Total daily departures

919 — Net Daily Growth

335,435 — Net annual growth

With no IRS statistics available to track foreign out-migration, researchers extrapolate this number using figures for the total population and the domestic in- and out-migration.

The Demographics of Growth. 2017-30

  • Florida’s white non-Hispanic population is expected to shrink from 55% of the overall population to 49.2%
  • Florida’s Hispanic population is expected to rise from 25.3% to 30.1%.
  • Florida’s black population is expected to rise from 16.2% to 17.1%.

Trends: More People

The rate of increase in the state’s population rebounded after the recession but will slow in the next decades. Florida’s population will continue to expand, however, passing 21.5 million in 2020 — a more than 14% increase in a decade.

Trends: Fewer Babies

By 2035, there will be more deaths than births in Florida, meaning all population growth will come from in-migration.

Milestones Ahead

  • By 2025, Miami-Dade will be the first county in Florida with more than 3 million people.
  • Broward will have more than 2 million people.
  • Pinellas and Duval each will have more than 1 million.

Average Daily Growth

Average daily growth in Florida has rebounded since the recession but will slow in the coming decades. (See chart in photo gallery above.) If you think Florida won’t be crowded, however, you’re mistaken: The state’s population will be about 27.4 million by 2045, about 7 million more than today.

‘Natural Increase’: Not Much

Most of Florida’s population increase isn’t coming out of the maternity ward — just 9% of our population growth comes from “natural increase” — the number of births minus deaths. During much of the 1990s, the natural increase in Florida’s population was about 33,000 a year, rising to a high of more than 71,000 in 2007. It has fallen since, as Baby Boomers age and younger families have fewer children. In 2017, the natural increase totaled 20,226.

 

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