August 12, 2022

News Release

Nelson Takes Lead In Critical Florida U.S. Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Women Are Key To Democrat's Lead

| 9/26/2018

In the Florida U.S. Senate race, which could be critical to control of the Senate this year, Democratic incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson moves into a 53 - 46 percent likely voter lead over Gov. Rick Scott, the Republican challenger, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today. 

This compares to a 49 - 49 percent dead heat in a September 5 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll. 

Today, women back Sen. Nelson 58 - 41 percent as men are divided, with 51 percent for Gov. Scott and 47 percent for the incumbent. 

White voters back Scott 53 - 45 percent. Supporting Nelson are black voters 90 - 10 percent and Hispanic voters 61 - 39 percent. 

Republicans back Scott 89 - 10 percent. Nelson leads 94 - 5 percent among Democrats and 56 - 40 percent among independent voters. 

Among Florida likely voters who name a candidate choice, 94 percent say their mind is made up. 

Nelson gets a 53 - 41 percent favorability rating, while Scott gets a negative 46 - 51 percent favorability rating. 

Florida likely voters give President Donald Trump a negative 44 - 54 percent job approval rating. 

"Sen. Bill Nelson has edged ahead of Gov. Rick Scott in the race for one of Florida's U.S. Senate seats, breaking a 49 - 49 percent tie between the two men in the previous Quinnipiac University poll of this race earlier this month," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. 

"Sen. Nelson is ahead 53 - 46 percent by doing a tad better than Gov. Scott with their respective bases and holding a 16-point lead among the key independent voting bloc," Brown added. "Nelson also leads among women and is breaking even among men - the traditional path to a Democratic victory. 

"A Nelson win would be a big boost for Democratic hopes of wresting control of the U.S. Senate from the GOP." 

Among Florida likely voters, 56 percent say they would like Congress to be "more of a check on President Trump," while 30 percent think, "Congress is doing enough to be a check on President Trump." 

Health care is the most important issue to their vote for U.S. Senator, 26 percent of Florida likely voters say, as 19 percent cite the economy, followed by 18 percent for immigration, 15 percent for the Supreme Court and 12 percent who list gun policy. 

Wide gender and racial gaps leave Florida likely voters divided on whether the U.S. Senate should confirm Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court, as 47 percent say yes and 48 percent say no. 

Women say no to confirmation 54 - 41 percent, while men say yes 55 - 40 percent. 

White voters say yes to confirmation 56 - 40 percent. Saying no are black voters 82 - 10 percent and Hispanic voters 55 - 42 percent. 

Republicans say yes 92 - 7 percent as Democrats say no 87 - 6 percent. Independent voters are divided as 44 percent say yes and 49 percent say no. 

From September 20 - 24, Quinnipiac University surveyed 888 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points, including the design effect. 

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues. 

More results from this poll are here.


Tags: Government/Politics & Law, Election 2018

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