SHARE:
Election 2016
Purple state, high stakes for Florida
Florida's U.S. House Races
The Bottom Line
Florida’s congressional delegation is divided 17-10 between Republicans and Democrats. But a more favorable congressional map for Democrats means that gap is likely to shrink — a 15-12 or 16-11 Republican majority is most likely. The shift is unlikely to have a substantial impact as Republicans are expected to retain their majority nationally. But the Florida races are nonetheless filled with intriguing storylines.
The Bench Shortens
District 2 (Bay, Calhoun, Columbia, Dixie, Franklin, Gilchrist, Gulf, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafayette, Leon, Levy, Liberty, Marion, Suwannee, Taylor, Wakulla, Washington counties) — Amid an electoral washout in 2014, Florida Democrats took solace in the election of Gwen Graham, daughter of former Gov. Bob Graham, to Congress. Two years later, Graham decided not to seek re-election to her northwest Florida seat in District 2, which has been redrawn to become a Republican-leaning seat. The next representative will come from a crowded Republican primary that includes Panama City physician Neal Dunn, former U.S. Attorney Ken Sukhia and Mary Thomas, a former attorney in Gov. Rick Scott’s administration. Meanwhile, even without her platform in Congress, Graham is widely seen as a likely candidate for governor in 2018.
Go West
District 11 (Citrus, Hernando, Lake, Marion, Sumter counties) — One of Orlando’s longest-serving elected officials is trying to become Brooksville’s newest. U.S. Rep. Daniel Webster, who has been in elected office almost continually since 1980, watched the Legislature transform his Republicanleaning seat into a safely Democratic slot. So he’s decided to run instead in District 11, which includes all of Citrus, Hernando and Sumter counties and parts of Lake and Marion counties, in an attempt to replace retiring U.S. Rep. Rich Nugent. Some people are upset with the geographic jump, including Nugent, who has endorsed his former chief of staff, Justin Grabelle, one of Webster’s opponents in the Republican primary.
He’s Baaack
District 13 (Pinellas County) — Once a popular Republican governor, Charlie Crist gave up the governor’s mansion to run for U.S. Senate in 2010, became an independent amid a faltering campaign, lost to Marco Rubio, then became a Democrat and won the party’s nomination for governor in 2014, only to lose to Gov. Rick Scott in the general election. Crist now is trying to make a comeback, running to represent District 13 in Pinellas County. The seat is held by Republican Rep. David Jolly, but the district was redrawn to take in many more Democratic precincts — including the downtown St. Petersburg neighborhood in which Crist lives.
Can Brown Still Deliver?
District 5 (Baker, Columbia, Duval, Gadsden, Hamilton, Jefferson, Leon, Madison counties) — U.S. Rep. Corrine Brown was indicted on conspiracy and fraud charges in July, throwing her re-election campaign into chaos. On top of that, she is running in a redrawn district. Once snaking from Jacksonville to Orlando, her district now has an east-west configuration that includes a lot of new and unfamiliar territory for her. Brown faces a tough opponent in former Senate Minority Leader Al Lawson, who has a base of support in Tallahassee.
Tossup No.1
District 18 (Martin, Palm Beach, St. Lucie counties) — Most pundits believe there are two true tossup congressional districts in Florida this year. The first is District 18, where incumbent Rep. Patrick Murphy is giving up the seat to run for U.S. Senate, and the prospect of an open swing seat has attracted a host of contenders. Rebecca Negron, a Martin County school board member and the wife of incoming Senate President Joe Negron, and former state Rep. Carl Domino are among the Republican candidates; Randy Perkins, who founded debrisremoval company AshBritt and can self-fund his campaign, is seen as the Democratic frontrunner.
Tossup No. 2
District 26 (part of Miami- Dade, Monroe counties) — In District 26 in Miami-Dade and Monroe counties, first-term Republican Rep. Carlos Curbelo, a moderate, has vowed not to vote for Donald Trump (or Hillary Clinton). Democrat and former U.S. Rep. Joe Garcia, who Curbelo ousted from Congress in 2014, wants a rematch, though Garcia must first beat Annette Taddeo, the Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor in 2014.
Campaign Finance
$500,000
The cost for a campaign to reach its target audience three times with a network ad buy this summer in Miami, the state’s most expensive media market.
$35,000
Approximate cost for a campaign to send a mail piece to 10,000 homes.
$40,000
The approximate cost to reach a campaign’s target audience three times with a network ad buy this summer in Gainesville, the state’s cheapest media market.
