March 29, 2024

Election 2016

Purple state, high stakes for Florida

Jason Garcia | 7/27/2016

Florida's U.S. Senate Races

Fissure

After repeated vows that he would not run for re-election to the Senate, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio reversed course at the last minute and launched a campaign for a second term. Rubio says his decision was based on concerns about both presidential candidates and the need for the GOP to retain control of the Senate.

The decision instantly changed the dynamics of what had been a race among a group of ‘who’s-that?’ candidates — a group that lacked statewide profiles developed over years of service.

More notable, Rubio’s decision highlights the fissure in politics throughout the country this election year that has seen the parties’ traditional donor bases and leaders contending against angry voters backing nontraditional politicians like Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, who often share little ideologically with their respective parties’ traditional views.

Rubio’s announcement drew support from Florida’s traditional GOP wing, including former Gov. Jeb Bush, who quickly endorsed Rubio’s candidacy despite the acrimony that played out between the two during their presidential campaigns. Meanwhile, two other mainstream Republicans who had been seeking the Senate seat, U.S. Rep. David Jolly and Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera, withdrew from the race, as did U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis, a Tea Party favorite, and businessman Todd Wilcox.

But while Trump had encouraged Rubio to run, the non-traditional wing of Florida’s GOP didn’t fall in line behind Rubio’s bid. Gov. Rick Scott immediately praised and encouraged Rubio’s lone remaining significant opponent in the GOP primary: Manatee County home builder Carlos Beruff, a friend of Scott’s who has never held elected office.

If Rubio defeats Beruff in the August primary, he will face the winner of a Democratic primary between U.S. Reps. Patrick Murphy (Jupiter) and Alan Grayson (Orlando).

Murphy, the son of Florida developer Tom Murphy Jr., ousted Tea Party candidate Allen West from Congress in 2012. Murphy was recruited by national Democratic Party leaders who attempted to clear the field for him. But they weren’t able to keep Grayson out.

With control of the U.S. Senate in play — and the turnout boost provided by a presidential election — both national parties are expected to invest heavily in the race. One consideration for national GOP leaders who encouraged Rubio to run is the fact that he can raise most of the money he’ll need to run, freeing up funds raised nationally for other races.

Whoever wins, the fallout of the Senate race could have lasting implications: A Rubio defeat could possibly scuttle his political career; a Rubio win would likely position him for another presidential run in four or eight years.

Tags: Politics & Law, Government/Politics & Law, Election 2016

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