Exit polls from 1994 show that Gov. Lawton Chiles' lopsided support among women voters was probably responsible for his 68,000-vote victory over Bush that year. And in 1996, it was women who likely put President Bill Clinton over the top in Florida ahead of Republican Bob Dole. The reason? Both candidates appealed to the issues women wanted addressed - things like healthcare, child care and education. Bush, it seems, has learned his lesson. He has opened a charter school in Liberty City and even prodded the Legislature's Republican leaders in April to support a Chiles initiative that attempts to prevent abuse and promote good parenting in needy families. Can MacKay bring those voters home?
CLOUT
A Growth Industry in Republican Lobbyists
Six months ago, when Secretary of State Sandra Mortham was still Jeb Bush's running mate, she dumped Rich Heffley as her chief of staff to end criticism that her office was too aggressive in promoting her political ambitions. Mortham eventually dropped off the ticket, settling back into her state job. Heffley landed comfortably as well - capitalizing on the red-hot demand in Tallahassee for Republican insiders.
Heffley joined the 5-year-old Tallahassee consulting group of Poole and McKinley, headed by former Republican Party Chairman Van Poole and Poole's former deputy, Will McKinley. Heffley acquired a stable of 29 corporate clients, including Chrysler Corp., Coca-Cola and AT&T, and saw his salary grow substantially from the $103,000 he made with the state. "It's a good time to be a Republican," Heffley effuses.
Indeed: Republicans are likely to win the governor's seat and to maintain control of the Legislature for some time. Those prospects have meant growing prominence for Republican-dominated firms like Poole and McKinley, and across-the-board demand for former elected officials, former deputies of elected officials and former party officials who have access and solid relationships with Republican officeholders.
Curt Kiser, a long-time Republican senator from Clearwater and running mate to unsuccessful gubernatorial candidate Tom Gallagher in 1994, was lured into lobbying with an attractive contract from Lakeland-based Holland and Knight's Tallahassee office. Bobby Brantley, Martinez' former lieutenant governor, opened the Tallahassee office of Shutts and Bowen with Eric Thorn, the House's former general counsel.
One of Tallahassee's oldest lobbying law firms, Bryant, Miller and Olive, established by former Democratic Gov. Ferris Bryant, lost some of its Republican partners who wanted to capitalize on their expanding influence. Jim Smith, a former Republican secretary of state, and Brian Ballard, former chief of staff to Martinez and Smith's son-in-law, split off in May to create their own firm: Smith, Ballard, Bradshaw and Logan. Like most lobbying groups, the firm doesn't just lobby the Legislature, it also represents clients before regulatory agencies, does bond deals for state and local governments and lobbies the Cabinet.
As term limits unseat dozens of incumbent legislators and their staffs in 2000, more Republicans are expected to enter lobbying. The sea change in the state's power structure is definitely "floating more Republican boats than you used to find in a marina," muses J.M. "Mac" Stipanovich, campaign manager for former Republican Gov. Bob Martinez and himself a committed Republican lobbyist. The capital's lobbying corps is now distributed across three main groups, described by Stipanovich this way:
Lobbying firms that are die-hard partisans, like his law firm Fowler, White, Gillen, Boggs, Villareal & Banker.
Specialty firms that focus on issues and contract with artisans as needed.
Lobbyists who have become "androgenous" and successfully establish relationships with lawmakers from both parties. Miami power broker Ron Book, for example, was long a close friend to Miami-Dade's Democratic lawmakers, but now counts as his chief client Republican Party fundraiser and entertainment mogul Wayne Huizenga.
Book's firm is among the lobbying operations with a traditional Democratic flavor that have looked to sprinkle some Republican seasoning into their staff mix. Jim Krog, veteran lobbyist for Steel, Hector and Davis' Tallahassee office and former chief of staff to Democratic Gov. Lawton Chiles, says his firm "lucked out" two years ago in hiring Mike Harrell, a Republican who formerly worked as a lobbyist for the Florida Medical Association. But Harrell also brings added cachet as the husband of Sally Harrell, the campaign manager for Bush, the Republican Party's likely nominee for governor.
Yet even as Republican clout grows, Democrats aren't nearing extinction. Nearly every large corporation that hires lobbyists in Tallahassee balances its team with a blend of long-time Democratic pros and newer Republican insiders. Smaller businesses also have begun pooling their resources to hire teams of lobbyists with a range of access, rather than relying on one or two people who may not be able to get the needed votes.
And even as Republican firms are growing, most look to avoid tilting too far in a partisan direction. The firm of Pete Dunbar - a Republican and former state representative, general counsel to former Gov. Martinez and one of a handful of veteran Republican lobbyists - also includes former Democratic House Speaker Ralph Haben. To further round out the firm's influence, it merged in December with eight lawyers from the Tallahassee office of Cobb, Cole and Bell, which includes prominent Democrats such as Sam Bell, the former House Democratic leader, and Kevin Crowley, the House's former general counsel. "There is a clear understanding you don't work one side of the aisle anymore, but you work both sides of the aisle," says Dunbar. "Then, if you've been there, you have an edge."