Despite this solid foundation, many Florida farmers feel gloomy these days. Some even fret that the glory days are over. Recent bad weather partly accounts for their melancholy. In February untimely winds and rain blew fresh blooms off many Florida crops. The wet weather lingered into March and brought fungus troubles, notably to citrus. Summer made things even worse with another crop killer -- severe drought and heat -- that stressed plants and livestock everywhere. In north and west Florida alone, drought caused losses estimated at $183.5 million to crops, livestock and pasture, according to Florida's Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services.
Then came the fires of summer. Some 2,300 wildfires raged across the state; croplands suffered everywhere, but the hardest hit were Florida's forests. A total of 260,000 acres of planted and intensively managed commercial pines -- public and private -- were destroyed or damaged from June 1 to July 15. All told, timber losses totaled at least $200 million, and this figure doesn't include trees still dying and those lost in swamps and wilderness areas. "It was the biggest fire disaster in Florida history since modern forest management went into effect in the late 1920s," says John O'Meara, state land supervisor for the Florida Division of Forestry.
Some tree farmers managed to recover 25% to 50% of their timber values by rushing salvageable lumber to market. Emergency federal aid is available to help small tree growers replant, but that won't help much in the short or even medium run: Trees, after all, take decades to grow to marketable size.
Before the year ended, more weird weather appeared. Hurricane Georges arrived in October and destroyed 50% of north Florida's fall vegetable crops. A month later, Hurricane Mitch caused an estimated $45 million worth of damage to agriculture in south Florida. Previously the sugar industry had been unscathed by bad climate, but Mitch brought serious flooding. "All 150,000 acres of our fields were under water, which caused $1.8 million in damage," says Bob Buker Jr., senior vice president for U.S. Sugar in Clewiston. "We'll have to replant 9,000 acres."
Bad weather wasn't all bad news though. Citrus prices went up when adverse weather reduced overall crop production. Florida's orange crops, for example, dropped about 22% in volume, and in October prices on early and midseason oranges rose 69% over average cash prices a year before. The shortfall is a mixed blessing, however. "Prices may be up, but there is less fruit to sell," notes Ernie Thomas, a citrus specialist with Merrill Lynch in Winter Park. The businesses really in trouble, according to Thomas, are processing facilities. With fresh fruit costing more than juice, "some small plants won't run fruit because they'll lose money."
As Florida's agribusiness industry tries to recover from ornery weather, other problems nag. Farmland, for instance, is under pressure from developers and conservation-minded water management districts and other government agencies. Labor is becoming scarce, too. Since most crops grown in Florida are still hand-picked, the need for workers remains great. A strong economy means that green card holders and even illegal immigrants now have more alternatives to farm work. "People don't raise their kids to become migrant farm workers," says Walter Kates, a labor specialist for the Florida Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Association. He adds there's also a trend toward full-time employment rather than the temporary work Florida agriculture offers. Many former Florida farm workers, for instance, have moved to north Georgia to work at poultry processing plants year round.
In this tight labor-market environment, Florida farmers have to be even more careful about hiring because they can face federal penalties if they employ illegal aliens, many of whom carry fraudulent documentation. According to Kates, several farmers report that more than 50% of the social security numbers their workers submit come back from Washington, D.C., as invalid. As irksome as this problem is, it's a familiar one to most Florida farmers. What causes even more anguish to many is a relatively new headache -- NAFTA, or the North American Free Trade Agreement.
Treaty from Hell
"Because of good weather, Florida used to have a corner on the winter market and each year was getting better until NAFTA," explains Bob Blankenship, economic researcher for the Department of Agriculture (DOA). "It opened up the flood gates."
From the onset, most Florida farmers opposed the trade treaty. Now four years later, many of their fears appear justified. "I testified before every committee in Washington against NAFTA, and the only thing that surprises me is that it's 10 times worse and came quicker than I'd expected," says Wayne Hawkins, executive vice president of the Florida Tomato Exchange.
The stats do look bad. For instance, the DOA estimates that Florida's share of the U.S. winter market for the "Big Seven" commodities -- snap beans, sweet corn, cucumbers, eggplant, bell peppers, squash and tomatoes -- dropped 19% between 1993 and 1997. This decline represents a $791 million loss in sales since NAFTA went into effect. In addition, an estimated 15,700 farm employees and vegetable packing house workers lost their jobs. Mexico, meanwhile, boosted its winter vegetable shipments to the U.S. by 69% during this period.
One of the hardest hit Florida producers is Hawkins own industry, tomatoes. According to the U.S. International Trade Commission, U.S. imports of fresh-market tomatoes -- mostly from Mexico -- increased 77% in volume from 1993 to 1997. As a result, Florida tomato growers endured $750 million in sales losses. In addition, the number of tomato farmers in Florida dropped from 230 to 80. Also, 24 packing houses went out of business. "We used to grow 50% of the tomatoes in the United States," says Hawkins. "Now it's down to 40%. We've been lambasted."
Part of the problem was the devaluation of the Mexican peso in 1994 that made Mexican products cheaper and Florida's more expensive. But, in the case of tomatoes, Florida growers also accused Mexico of dumping. A suspension agreement worked out by the U.S. Commerce Department ended that practice two years ago, and today life looks a bit brighter for Florida's tomato farmers.
The Commerce Department's action concerning tomatoes was a "godsend" says John von Sickle, a trade specialist and professor at the University of Florida's Department of Food and Resources Economy. "In the last two years we've seen a comeback. Today, the average price of tomatoes and the value of other Florida crops is the highest it's been since 1992." But Florida agriculture continues to lose market share. During a 30-day fall shipping period in 1997, Florida farmers claimed 56% of the U.S. vegetable market. A year later that share had shrunk to 25%.
The sugar industry is also feuding with Mexico over NAFTA. Mexico has increased its use of corn syrup sweeteners for Mexico's beverage industry and in turn created a surplus of sugar for its domestic market. U.S. farmers were miffed when Mexico challenged a NAFTA provision to get permission to exceed treaty limits on its sugar exports into the U.S. Meanwhile, "Mexico is not living up to its agreement to open its market to U.S. corn syrup," charges Jack Roney, director of economics and policy analysis, American Sugar Alliance in Washington, D.C. "The issue remains volatile."
This comes at a time when sugar yields are up and prices are down. Demand for the industry's byproducts is also smarting, and the mad cow disease in Europe, not just NAFTA, is partly to blame. The slaughter of cattle created a glut of "unconsumed" European-grown grain that competes directly with Florida molasses, a sugar byproduct used as feed.
NAFTA stands accused of causing other troubles. Some critics suspect that many of Florida's bouts with agricultural pests and diseases are related to increased imports. It's hard to draw a direct correlation between NAFTA and Medfly and citrus canker outbreaks, the tomato yellow leaf curl virus and the arrival of new pests such as the hibiscus mealy bug -- which attacks 200 kinds of plants. But it only stands to reason, says Mike Shannon, USDA's state plant director for Florida, that "if there's more trade, then there's more of a risk" that these exotics will appear.
Combating pests is costly. "In the past 10 years, Florida has spent $150 million eradicating plant and pest disease," estimates Terrence McElroy, spokesman for the DOA. And this amount doesn't include ruined crop disposal fees. The DOA's Blankenship notes: "In Manatee County alone this year, it cost farmers $25 to dump a truck load of infected tomatoes. At least $1 million worth of tomatoes were dumped."
Learning to cope
Problems with exotic pests aside, the worst of the trauma caused by NAFTA may be over. "I think we've felt most of the impact we're going to get," says UF professor von Sickle. Despite Mexico's gains, he argues, Florida's food producers still have several advantages: "We still have proximity to the market, better technology and we have a better system in place than our competitors."
A consensus is also growing within Florida agribusiness sectors that with the Clinton administration, the U.S. Congress and a slew of non-agricultural businesses and industries strongly behind NAFTA, farmers have no choice but to come to terms with the trade agreement. "There's a sense we've come around the bend in learning to live with NAFTA," says Ray Gilmer, spokesman for the Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Association. "But we know we can no longer assume that Florida can be a low cost producer. We will always be higher than an underdeveloped country."
Many within the industry also acknowledge that if Florida farmers can't compete on price, they must learn to create new market niches. Brooks Tropicals, a Homestead-based avocado grower and shipper, is a good example. Two years ago, the company began marketing a "Lite Avocado" with "35% fewer calories and 50% less fat than the leading California Avocado." Last year 20% of the 2 million flats of Florida avocados Brooks Tropicals shipped were lites -- that's double the percentage in 1997.
NAFTA also taught Florida's green giant to be more vigilant in future negotiations. As talks gear up within the World Trade Organization and another trade initiative moves forward -- the Free Trade Area of the Americas -- Florida farmers vow they won't get burned again.