Lee County's demographics offer a preview of the biggest change that will sweep Florida in the early years of the 21st century. If today's elderly population seems sizable at 18% statewide, consider: By 2025, as the baby boom generation retires, Florida's elder population statewide will mirror Lee's: More than one in every four Floridians -- some 5.5-million people -- will be 65 or older.
The change will be swift. In the past 20 years, the percentage of seniors inched up about 1%, from 17% in 1980 to 18% today. In the next 20 it will skyrocket -- to 26% by 2025. Today's elder population "will pale in significance to the age wave that will wash across the state in the next three decades," says UF historian David Colburn, co-author of an upcoming book on Florida in the 21st century.
Demographers say the coming generation will generally settle in areas now dominated by retirees -- already, there are 11 counties with 30% or more elderly; in 2025 there will be 22.
But they add that Florida -- by 2025 the third-largest state behind California and Texas -- will feel their impact in every county. "The surge in the number of retirees will make Florida more of a retirement haven than at any previous time in its history," says Colburn, "and (more) than any state has ever been."
Many predict the boomers will redefine aging as they did youth, living vastly different retirement lifestyles than their parents. But such a large concentration of elderly people in Florida -- however they live -- has enormous social and economic implications for the state, from environmental pressures to healthcare access to budget priorities. In the short run, when young retirees are moving in, "it's going to be really cool -- all that stock market money and cash from their houses," says Lance deHaven-Smith, a professor of public policy at Florida State University's Institute of Government and Colburn's co-author. But in the long run, he says, "they are going to be an enormous burden on Florida."
Marketer's dream?
DeHaven-Smith points out that just over half of the age wave will be people who already live in Florida, and who may have become sensitized to Florida issues. He also sees boomers as more idealistic in their political expectations and prone to political action, a force that may "finally support policies adequate to Florida's urban and environmental challenges."
But while some predict baby boom retirees will flock to Florida's revitalized urban centers, deHaven-Smith believes they'll continue Florida's traditional growth patterns, exacerbating the environmental, social, political and economic problems associated with sprawl.
Politically progressive or not, retired boomers are likely to be physically and professionally active. Kobza, who is president of an Internet company called Neighborhood America, sees a change already. New retirees in Lee County "are contributing much more than previous generations," he says. "We now see people in their 50s, 60s and 70s leading national and international corporations at the same time they are living in southwest Florida in a sort of retirement mode."
Retired boomers also will be wealthier than their predecessors -- at least initially -- and will want to spend their money sooner rather than later, says Judie Rappaport, owner of the Jupiter-based consulting firm Advantage 50 Plus.
Across the U.S., companies are working on Florida-specific marketing strategies to get the most money out of the generation during its spending years. "Florida is one of our most important, if not the most important, markets for the next two decades because of this group," says Jeff Shaheen, marketing strategy manager for the Orlando regional office of Lincoln-Mercury Co. He says the company sees the new Floridians as people who "don't just want to carry their grandkids around. They want to travel and put their dog crates or their bikes in the back of the vehicle."
Developers, too, are working on new communities to appeal to the type of elders who may be toting Palm Pilots as they train for triathlons. At Lennar Corp. properties across the state, the use of fitness clubs has quadrupled in the past five years, says Vice President Marshall Ames. In addition to sprawling aerobics rooms and full-time fitness counselors for the boomer generation, he says, the company is beginning to build in amenities such as high-speed Internet access to appeal to the technologically savvy. Some homes feature xeriscaped yards to appeal to the environmentally conscious.
Caring for the 'Me Generation'
One general challenge the retiring boomers pose for Florida's economy will be their appetite for services. Some service sectors, such as healthcare, have higher-than-average wages, but most don't. In an economy dominated by retirees, with relatively fewer working-age people, some combination of worker shortages and rising costs appears inevitable.
Labor shortages and higher costs will hurt the most in the healthcare sector, as the baby boom retirees create a massive additional demand for physicians, nurses, health aides and facilities.
However the economic pressures play out, they are sure to solidify the healthcare industry as the dominant colossus in the state's economy.
Florida's existing retiree population already has made health-related occupations among the leading sources of new jobs in Florida. Between 1994 and 2005, for example, the industry is expected to create more than 200,000 new jobs, a 40% increase. (Tourism, by contrast, will grow by 28% during that period).
Even allowing for a healthier generation, elderly retirees will consume a disproportionate amount of health services. The demand is compounded in Florida because many of the state's elderly residents live far away from family members who could help care for them, and end up using the most expensive kind of healthcare -- nursing homes and intensive care units. Elders in Miami-Dade County, for example, already have the highest chance in the nation of spending time in an intensive care unit in their final years.
Over time, retirees who live into their 90s and beyond, growing ever more frail, will further intensify demand for healthcare. Donna Cohen, a professor in the University of South Florida's Department of Aging and Mental Health, predicts the coming generation of retirees could live 10 to 20 years longer than their parents because of breakthroughs in cellular and molecular biology.
By 2010, before the oldest boomers turn 65, the number of Floridians 85 and over will grow 50%.
A particular concern is that large numbers of the super-elderly may outlive their assets, shifting the burden of their care onto taxpayers.
Hints of what may come are already showing up: In retirement villages like Sun City Center, a number of residents who moved in 30 years ago -- secure that they had planned well for the future -- have outlived their savings and are being forced into Medicaid-funded nursing homes.
Cohen and others say Florida relies too much on nursing homes and isn't moving fast enough to find alternatives. Ironically for a state with such a large elderly population, Florida "has not taken on the mantle of leadership when it comes to aging issues," she says. Cohen points to states such as Oregon, Wisconsin and Illinois that are leading the nation in creating innovative community-care programs. Day-care programs, for example, are inexpensive alternatives to nursing homes and allow elderly residents to live at home much longer. Respite care programs, which give a break to family members caring full-time for an aging relative, have been shown to put off the need for a nursing home for years.
Gema Hernandez, Gov. Jeb Bush's appointee to lead the state's Department of Elder Affairs, believes the state has between five and seven years to prepare for the age wave and its costs. Florida's Medicaid costs for the elderly alone, for example, are expected to jump from $1.8 billion today to $4.2 billion in 2015. Hernandez's goal during that period is to shift Florida away from a nursing home-centered model toward community-based care.
Who pays?
As with the healthcare system, the older the retired boomers get, the more they will demand in government services, from transportation to social services. The state -- whose tax system is suspect [Florida Trend, August 1999] -- is far from prepared. Already, Florida exempts seniors from paying for everything from fishing licenses to tuition at state universities. And as the boomer population gets older, it will spend more on services, which are not taxed, and less on goods, which are. State revenues also will suffer as the number of residents covered by Florida's property tax cap and an additional local-option homestead exemption for low-income seniors swells.
DeHaven-Smith says Florida should have any tax reform, urban infrastructure projects, limits on sprawl and other public policy initiatives related to the elderly under way before the age wave washes ashore. "If they move in and the policies are already in place, they'll just accept it," he says. "Once they're here, it won't be possible to increase their burden."
Not everybody views the age wave as a potential natural disaster. Ames, the Lennar vice president, counters that by the time Florida's baby boomers start costing the state more than they're putting in, "they will have earned it." Ames says, "For the most part this group is going to bring in an incredible amount of disposable income with very little demand for social services." He adds, "I think there's going to be a significant difference between the 85-year-old boomer and today's 85-year-old grandparent."
Indeed, the old boomers are expected to make enormous contributions to the state, in everything from volunteer work to philanthropy to sheer intellectual capital. Rappaport, the Jupiter consultant, observes that for many years, the retired boomers will be "vital and athletic and viable for the job market. "And when you think about it," she says, "we want to keep them vital and keep them working so we don't have to pay for them."
The Latin Beat
The influence of Florida's Hispanic population will move far beyond southeast Florida in the years ahead.
Alba Torres knew there was a market for Puerto Rican food in her native Lee County when she opened Sabor De La Isla in Fort Myers earlier this year, but she never imagined the tiny restaurant with its bright blue roof, hot pink impatiens and roasting-pig mural would attract a steady crush of customers from as far away as Miami and Orlando.
Torres and her husband, Roberto, who soak their own beans and slow-roast succulent pork dishes, made more money their first few months than they expected to in their first year. Their clientele is primarily non-Hispanic whites, including seniors from nearby retirement communities. "I used to go to Dade County and wonder how there could be a Spanish restaurant or bakery on every street corner," says Torres. "I used to wish it could happen here, and now I believe it's going to."
This outpost of Latin influence in a corner of Florida with a tiny Hispanic population -- 6% in Lee vs. 16% statewide -- could be a herald of the new century, when Florida's Hispanic population will swell to 24%, from 2.4 million today to 5.2 million in 2025. Less significant will be the increase in Florida's black population, which will grow just 2%, from 15% today to 17% in 2025.
While demographers predict most Hispanic Floridians will continue to live in the southeast, particularly Miami-Dade County, every county in the state will taste a heavier Latin flavor in the new century. Max Castro, a senior research associate in the University of Miami's North-South Center, a think tank dedicated to Latin American/U.S. relations, says Hispanics are settling in traditionally Anglo areas of Florida because of the demand for labor in industries such as homebuilding or healthcare.
While Florida's Hispanic boom in the next 25 years will be as large percentage-wise as the elder boom, the social and political ramifications will not be as uniform. For one, the Hispanic population will not be spread evenly across the state. For another, the population is not a monolith. According to University of Florida historian David Colburn, Brazilians, Colombians and Nicaraguans, for example, tend to be well-to-do, may not identify themselves as Hispanics and seldom interact with Mexicans and Puerto Ricans, who are often poorer and come to Florida to work in the tourism and agriculture industries. Castro says the population also will not vote as a bloc: While Cubans in Miami-Dade have traditionally supported Republicans, the growing Puerto Rican population in central Florida is more likely to send Democrats to Tallahassee. Castro predicts a statewide standoff over bilingual education as the Hispanic population grows across the peninsula, as well as conflicts over jobs if the economy takes a downturn. Colburn, too, says the state's relatively good ethnic relations, highlighted by a bilingual governor with a Hispanic wife, could sour if the economy stagnates. Colburn warns of the emergence of a "white ethnicity," particularly given the state's history of racial oppression in the last two centuries: "For now, however, the state's robust economy has served to ease racial and ethnic relations," he says.
Back at Sabor De La Isla, fixing up a plate of yuca in garlic sauce, Torres says she's had only one bit of tension with non-Hispanics: All those senior citizens have begun clamoring for a discount.
Clash of Ages
As elder issues take center stage, will Florida's kids be left waiting in the wings?
At the close of the 20th century, Florida still ranks among the worst 10 states in the nation on indicators of child health, education and well-being -- from the 80,000 poor kids on waiting lists for child care to the 330,000 children with no health insurance.
By 2025, the number of children in Florida will increase by almost 1 million, adding to the demand for schools, healthcare and other social services. As the state marches into a future in which there will be three times as many retirees as children under 18, advocates worry things may only get worse for Florida's kids -- if the old perception holds true that elder Floridians are indifferent to children's issues.
There are reasons to wonder: In a case before the state Supreme Court, for example, developers of an over-55 community in Volusia County called Aberdeen are suing the school board, saying residents should not have to pay school-impact fees because no children will ever live there.
But the Aberdeen case has another side: When news of the lawsuit hit the streets, many Aberdeen residents were appalled. Several wrote letters to local newspapers stating their willingness to pay school impact fees. One resident declared that if the developer won the case, the $300,000 at issue should be donated to the schools. "I would say the vast majority of older people here support the school system," says Volusia school board attorney Richard Graham, a lifelong county resident who notes school bond issues have generally enjoyed strong support in senior precincts.
University of South Florida political science professor Susan MacManus, who has studied elderly voting patterns extensively, agrees "it's a false stereotype that older people vote against children." Across the state, her research has borne out a trend that seniors strongly support children -- but more so when they believe their tax dollars are being used wisely. That is, voters over 50 are more apt to support increased healthcare and social services for children, but less likely to support big increases in public school spending "because they don't want to invest more in a broken system," MacManus says.
One key to keeping the generations linked, many believe, will be to encourage mixed residential areas that include all ages. Some fear Florida will continue to develop in a segregated pattern where old and young will live separately, and where a lack of familiarity with those outside gated walls will breed fear and selfishness. "It's very, very hard to support those whom you don't know and never see," says Jack Levine, president of the Center for Florida's Children.
Many in the idealistic baby boom generation are likely to retire to urban areas that are multi-generational and racially mixed. The boomers are predicted to actively volunteer in retirement, and to be generous with the wealth coming their way via inheritance and the stock market -- both trends that bode well for children.
But those closest to today's elderly predict that while it may take the boomers longer to reach true old age, when they get there, they will face the same fears, financial strains and frailties as the generations before them.
"I'm hopeful that we can avert a generational stand-off between the old and young," says Jim Towey, president of the nonprofit advocacy group Aging With Dignity, who believes Florida's lack of preparation for the coming age wave will hurt both elders and children. "But I really don't see the baby boomers voting much differently than our current seniors when the same issues face them."