Florida Trend | Florida's Business Authority

Overdue


Bubbles, like bull markets, end ugly. For proof, look no further than the battalions of homeowners and real estate investors being marched off into foreclosure in Florida.

Florida's foreclosure rate in February trailed only small states Nevada and Colorado nationally, with one foreclosure filing for every 382 households, according to RealtyTrac, an Irvine, Calif., foreclosure market firm. In total filings, Florida, with 19,144, led the nation. That number nearly doubled February 2006's count and was up 63.5% from January, RealtyTrac says.

But the depth of real estate sorrow, as shown by the accompanying charts, depends on the area and how much speculation and price run-up it saw since 2000.

The glut of unsold properties doesn't provide optimism that those chart numbers represent a peak. In the fall of 2006, Jack Connor of IRR Residential Appraisal Associates in Longwood appraised about one home a month that had a troubled loan. In March, he was appraising three a week.

Within individual markets, the anecdotal evidence is that the best locations -- the Winter Parks -- have some of the greatest unsold inventory problems. Investors and buyers, following the old saw about location, bid up prices highest in the best places.

Meanwhile, those who scraped into homeownership through subprime financing are falling out already. Coming next are those who went in with adjustable-rate loans expecting to refinance their way out of an interest-rate bump. They lack the equity to do it painlessly.

Recent new-home purchasers who are now selling face trouble. They're competing against builders desperate to unload unsold inventory. Also in jeopardy: Those who used home equity loans to turn their homes into piggy banks. Connor recalls one home he appraised that had had six refis in 18 months. The homeowners were well-equipped with a new pool, home electronics and new SUVs, but they were out of equity.

"We've got some real adjustments ahead of us," says real estate consultant, analyst and Florida Trend contributor Lewis Goodkin. That's especially true in the condo market. Buildings now under construction throughout the state will finish this year and next and then developers and their lenders will see how many contracts turn into actual sales. Says Goodkin: "The condo market is a genuine disaster."

NEXT PAGE: "Month-By-Month," and "Year-By-Year" Change in Foreclosure -- Charts

4 Year-Over-Year Change in Foreclosures
County
2005
2006
% Change
Alachua
962
742
-23%
Broward
13,514
21,144
56
Collier
1,277
911
-29
Duval
9,383
7,796
-17
Escambia
1,587
1,352
-15
Hillsborough
8,792
8,427
-4
Miami-Dade
21,434
24,214
13
Orange
6,908
7,482
8
Palm Beach
8,454
10,915
29
Pinellas
6,924
5,813
-16
Sarasota
1,953
1,713
-12
Seminole
2,221
2,073
-7
Florida
121,843
124,721
2%
U.S.
885,468
1,259,118
42%
Source: RealtyTrac

4 Month-By-Month Foreclosures
COUNTY
JAN/06
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN/07
FEB
Alachua
110
124
98
58
28
5
68
9
88
64
69
21
107
97
Broward
1,163
1,212
1,266
973
1,652
1,895
1,628
4,263
2,540
1,606
2,127
819
2,211
2,061
Collier
84
66
65
61
61
39
83
67
117
78
110
80
264
84
Duval
1,205
545
1,000
984
772
262
1,009
85
880
506
385
163
630
1,415
Escambia
136
162
102
104
57
110
125
115
126
112
100
103
142
286
Hillsborough
540
1,052
675
726
651
393
1,050
602
675
1,047
308
708
727
1,271
Miami-Dade
1,643
1,408
1,434
1,508
1,083
2,166
1,883
4,355
3,142
2,122
1,637
1,833
1,791
3,035
Orange
661
876
623
706
608
562
475
681
537
1,015
330
408
423
823
Palm Beach
1,173
765
738
733
989
920
529
2,241
873
866
494
594
680
1,317
Pinellas
396
465
470
304
379
309
654
758
490
593
290
705
404
1,414
Sarasota
205
134
133
124
123
53
147
190
119
139
214
132
280
449
Seminole
197
201
125
138
180
130
177
194
279
138
194
120
263
273
Florida 10,334 10,019 9,283 8,350 8,898 8,605 10,757 16,433 12,946 11,413 9,362 8,321 11,709 19,144
Source:RealtyTrac