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Election 2008
Who Will Take Florida? McCain or Obama
Florida Trend asked some of the state's political experts to predict what will happen in Florida on Election Day 2008.
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McCain Victory
Florida will continue to be
a competitive state during the current election cycle. McCain, with assistance from Charlie Crist, will carry the state but only by the slightest of margins. Christian conservatives and security-conscious moms along the I-4 corridor energized by Sarah Palin will offset historic turnouts by African-Americans and younger people for the Obama-Biden ticket. Democrats, however, will pick up six to eight seats in the Florida House while the Republicans will pick up Tim Mahoney’s seat in the U.S. Congress. State politics in 2009 will be dominated by shrinking tax revenues coupled with stagnant growth, thus perpetuating the need for more painful budget cuts, especially in education.
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Veep Factor
I think the party faithful on the Democratic side are going to love Joe Biden and that the party faithful on the Republican side are going to love Sarah Palin. I don’t think the vice president is going to be determinative in any way to the average voter. I think most voters will find something to like in the choice of their own party.
Presidential Edge
No. 1, I think overall McCain will have a little bit of an edge if for no other reason than Florida has a large number of veterans and McCain just appeals to those folks, and No. 2, Obama was having some real problems getting the Jewish vote. What’s really gotten a lot of the press is the Hillary voters who weren’t coming over to Obama. I think most of them will come back. But Obama’s apparently been having some trouble with the Jewish vote. He went to AIPAC (American Israel Public Affairs Committee) a few months ago and gave a speech, but I don’t know that it went over so well.
The Bush Factor
I think the economy is becoming No. 1 on most people’s radar. I think the war is off the front page. Ultimately, what it may come down to is it may not be an issue, so much as Obama and the Democrats have to make George W. Bush McCain’s running mate — and I think McCain and the Republicans have to get divorced from the Bush administration.
