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Florida TaxWatch Economic Commentary
A sunny economic outlook for Florida in 2016
Improved job growth contributing significantly to the economy.
Indications of a Strong 2016
With a growing job and housing market in Florida, other areas of the state’s economy will see a boost. Florida’s personal income growth saw great advancements in 2015; in fact, Florida had the largest gain in personal income growth from the fourth quarter of 2014 to the first quarter of 2015 of any state in the nation.9
Going forward, forecasts for 2016 in terms of personal income growth are optimistic. In July 2015, the Florida Office of Economic & Demographic Research (EDR) hosted the Florida Economic Estimating Conference. During the conference, EDR put out its predictions on personal income growth for the future, stating that long term personal income growth rates are expected to grow between 4.4 and 5.5 percent.10 This sentiment was echoed by the Florida & Metro Forecast, which predicted that personal income would grow 4.9 percent in 2016.11Both of these predictions have Florida outpacing the nation, a positive sign for the state’s economy and the residents of Florida.
With the increase in personal income, growth in the job market, and an overall increase in consumer confidence, Florida is expected to see a boost in retail spending. In fact, forecasts show that retail spending will accelerate in 2016, with retail spending growth estimated to be 5.3 percent, more than a percentage point higher than 2015.12This comes from the fact that more Floridians are starting to build up disposable income, increasing discretionary spending, and allowing more money to flow through the economy. The effects of this increase will create more jobs, and help boost the overall health of the state’s economy.
Conclusion
Heading into 2016, Floridians have reason to be positive. The state’s economy has recovered nicely since the recession and Florida is finally starting to level out. Through 2016, expect stable and consistent growth in the job market, housing market, and other facets of the Florida economy. With these increases, consumer confidence will likely rise, creating an environment where hard-working Floridians feel comfortable spending their money. This influx will help carry the Florida economy through 2016, generating stable and positive gains this year.
9 Florida Economic Estimating Conference. Florida Office of Economic & Demographic Research, 2015.
10 Ibid
11 Snaith, Sean. Florida & Metro Forecast. September 2015. U of Central Florida.
12 Ibid.
Economic Commentary written by
Kyle Baltuch, MS, Economist
Robert Weissert, Executive VP for Research & Special Counsel to the President & CEO
Steven T. Petty, Ph.D., Chief Economist
Chris Barry, Director of Publications
Michelle A. Robinson, Chairman of the Board of Trustees, Florida TaxWatch
Sen. George LeMieux, Advisory Board Chairman, Center for Competitive Florida
"2016 Economic Preview"
Dominic M. Calabro, President, CEO, Publisher & Editor
Florida TaxWatch Research Institute, Inc.
www.floridataxwatch.org