Who Will Take Florida? McCain or Obama
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Presidential Edge
John McCain will likely run 1% to 2% ahead of his national percentage in Florida. I would give him a slight edge in the state based on 1) high percentage of military retirees; 2) higher percentage of older voters; and 3) cross-over vote among conservative Democrats, which gives Florida its GOP lean over the past 20 years.
Veep Factor
Sarah Palin will help McCain more in Florida than Joe Biden will help Barack Obama. McCain has been running about 10 points below other successful statewide GOP candidates (Jeb Bush, Mel Martinez, Charlie Crist and George W. Bush) among registered Republican voters. Palin should rally the base GOP to McCain and improve his chances of carrying Florida.
Minority Turnout
The overall number of black voters casting ballots will increase. However, African-American voters only comprise 12.4% of Florida voters and historically cast between 10% and 11% of the vote in a general election. As a percentage of the total state vote, that might increase by 1% in 2008 but will certainly not be higher than 12%.
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Independents
Every piece of data that I’ve seen shows that Florida is a tossup. The way it’s going to work out is with the independent voters and, in particular, the independent voters in the I-4 corridor. Almost 38% of Florida’s independent voters live along that corridor, and that’s where the battle is going to be.
Veep Factor
Are all the nice, old Jewish ladies in south Florida going to return to the Republican fold? If McCain had chosen Joe Lieberman, I’d say yes. Instead, McCain chose a woman who’ll be of absolutely no use. I noticed that Biden immediately went to southeast Florida and has done very well with the Jewish community there. I think McCain helped himself with the evangelicals, who were very skittish, with the pick of Palin. However, the hierarchy of Florida GOP are all bent out of shape because Charlie Crist wasn’t chosen because Charlie would have been a stronger candidate in Florida than Palin.
The Economy, Stupid
Based on the GOP convention, the McCain campaign has much more work to do in Florida than it thought it had to do six months ago. The bottom line is that McCain and Obama are going to have to come up with a plan to revive Florida’s economy. It’s absolutely tanking and getting worse. The candidate who can make the most sense — not the one who can promise the most — and be the most appealing to get Florida back on its feet, that person will have a decided advantage.
Amendment 2
Gay marriage brings out the evangelicals. They’re the ones fighting the culture wars, and that helps McCain, obviously. That thing will probably pass, and it will probably have a very large turnout. What I’d guess is the Democrats aren’t going to fight that battle. They’ll try to focus their attention beyond that onto something else. The last thing Obama’s people want is to get wrapped up in that controversy.
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Coattails?
Support of Obama will drive record turnout of African-American voters and provide a bump in the number of younger voters. However, the real question is, will Obama supporters continue to vote down the ballot? Will he have coattails long enough to pull local Democratic candidates into office, particularly in areas with close Democratic and Republican registration? In the end, I believe the answer will be no.
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Democratic Surge
Democrats are positioned for a comeback in this year’s election in Florida.
After decades of Republican growth among the state’s registered voters, the Florida electorate is beginning to shift back to the Democratic Party. In the first six months of 2008, Democratic voter registration outpaced Republican registration by more than 130,000 voters. This surge in Democratic voter registration reverses a trend of growing Republicanism that has dominated Florida since the 1960s. Democrats now outnumber Republicans in Florida by more than 440,000 voters. Moreover, the Democrats’ gains this year have been concentrated geographically in Florida’s battleground counties along the I-4 corridor, which is an ominous sign for Republican congressional and legislative candidates in that part of the state. If turnout is high, which appears likely,
I would expect Obama to win Florida and Democrats to pick up two seats in the state’s congressional delegation.
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Presidential Edge
McCain has the edge based on history, but Obama has a shot based on the current trends. Florida has never voted for a liberal Democrat or a black candidate in a statewide election in the modern political era. McCain should do well with Republicans, conservative Democrats, veterans and active military, Cubans and seniors and fight Obama to a draw with independents. However, the economy is very tough in Florida, and the president’s party usually gets the blame when that happens. Obama has out-raised McCain and will spend a ton of money in Florida — which is essential to cover 10 media markets. Also, Obama has done a great job electrifying his base and registering new voters — the Florida Democrats have far outnumbered Republicans in new voter registration over the past year. If black voters and younger voters turn out in record numbers, Obama could make history in Florida.
Amendment 2
It should be a draw for conservative voters who otherwise have not been as thrilled with McCain. With the addition of Palin on the GOP ticket, the number of social and religious conservatives who are mobilized in favor of this issue will exceed the number of liberals and gay rights activists who are mobilized to fight against it.
Hot Issues
Economic issues will be most important for the majority of Florida voters — high gas prices, high food prices, high property insurance, high property taxes, declining property values, declining state and local budgets and declining employment are real and growing concerns.
But remember that many voters in a presidential election are not issue voters — many vote based on the leadership characteristics, personality, “likeability” and experience of the candidates.
Veep Factor
Palin will likely play better. But vice presidential nominees rarely decide a race. If the GOP is fortunate, Palin will inspire turnout among conservatives and convert a few undecided women. Biden is a solid choice, but Obama’s electoral sizzle is not enhanced by his addition — now if he had picked Hillary ... .
Minority Turnout
Black turnout will exceed the record level set in the 2000 presidential election. Hispanic turnout will be strong as well, although likely not record-setting in terms of percent.
Polling Problems?
I don’t think there will be any major trouble. Many counties will be giving their optical scan ballots their biggest test since they got rid of the touch screens. However, the optical scan technology is very solid and has proven reliable over the years in many other counties in Florida so chances are good for a glitch-free election. Some optical scan software has had problems in the tabulation phase — thankfully, if that happens we now have paper ballots to review.
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Turning Points
The 2008 presidential race will represent turning points of monumental proportions. These turning points are not just because a representative of a minority group will win the White House. No matter who wins, the opportunities for members of all minority groups have been enhanced for future elections. If McCain wins, he will be the oldest president on record, and we will have the first female vice president; if Obama wins, we will have the first African-American president and first Catholic vice president. The majority has become the minority.
Long Lines
In August, a change in state law took effect that mandates a paper trail and a backup for all ballots cast. I have worked as a poll worker since 2004; since 2006, I have served as a poll clerk, the person who gets both credit and blame based on how things go at the polling place. My biggest concern at the state’s Aug. 26 primaries was that the new machines would malfunction. They did not. The only problems that will likely arise at the actual polling sites will be related to high voter turnout — long lines and first-time voters who come to the wrong polling place. As in every election, there will be voters who do not understand the ballot language on the amendments and who do not know the candidates whose offices are found lower on the ballot.
Showing Up
The country with the longest- running representative democracy in the world has among the lowest voter turnout. Depending on whom you ask, we are third-to-last in the world, ahead of Switzerland and Poland, and behind Estonia, Iceland and India, among many others. What brings people to the polls? Elections that matter — plain and simple. What makes elections matter is that potential voters believe that the outcome will make a difference in their lives. The more similar the candidates appear to the public, the lower will be voter turnout. If it is expected that one candidate will win hands down, then the public will stay home as well. In 2008, neither of these conditions is true. Thus, we can expect that turnout will increase. This means more first-time and otherwise inexperienced voters.
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McCain Victory
Florida will continue to be
a competitive state during the current election cycle. McCain, with assistance from Charlie Crist, will carry the state but only by the slightest of margins. Christian conservatives and security-conscious moms along the I-4 corridor energized by Sarah Palin will offset historic turnouts by African-Americans and younger people for the Obama-Biden ticket. Democrats, however, will pick up six to eight seats in the Florida House while the Republicans will pick up Tim Mahoney’s seat in the U.S. Congress. State politics in 2009 will be dominated by shrinking tax revenues coupled with stagnant growth, thus perpetuating the need for more painful budget cuts, especially in education.
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Veep Factor
I think the party faithful on the Democratic side are going to love Joe Biden and that the party faithful on the Republican side are going to love Sarah Palin. I don’t think the vice president is going to be determinative in any way to the average voter. I think most voters will find something to like in the choice of their own party.
Presidential Edge
No. 1, I think overall McCain will have a little bit of an edge if for no other reason than Florida has a large number of veterans and McCain just appeals to those folks, and No. 2, Obama was having some real problems getting the Jewish vote. What’s really gotten a lot of the press is the Hillary voters who weren’t coming over to Obama. I think most of them will come back. But Obama’s apparently been having some trouble with the Jewish vote. He went to AIPAC (American Israel Public Affairs Committee) a few months ago and gave a speech, but I don’t know that it went over so well.
The Bush Factor
I think the economy is becoming No. 1 on most people’s radar. I think the war is off the front page. Ultimately, what it may come down to is it may not be an issue, so much as Obama and the Democrats have to make George W. Bush McCain’s running mate — and I think McCain and the Republicans have to get divorced from the Bush administration.