April 23, 2024

2008 Industry Outlook

Residential Real Estate 2008

Bottoming Out: The residential market will likely hit its low this year.

Richard Westlund | 1/1/2008

Miami offices
“When you look at the looming oversupply in the Miami-Dade condo market, it’s likely there will be several years of down pricing.”
— Real estate consultant David Dabby

[Photo: Daniel Portnoy]
It appears that 2008 will be the year of the trough for residential real estate, the low point before conditions start to improve — most likely around the third quarter. Meanwhile, those moving to Florida should find plenty of homes for sale at falling prices. And it appears people are still coming. Between 2006 and 2007, the state picked up 331,000 new residents, according to the Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

Lewis Goodkin, president of Goodkin Consulting in Miami (and a contributor to Florida Trend), expects the state’s builders to keep cutting home prices as land and construction costs fall. He adds one caveat: “Our pricing has escalated so much in recent years that genuine users have really thinned out because of affordability.”

Sean Snaith, director of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness at the University of Central Florida, says the state’s lower-cost markets are most likely to attract residents. Orlando, Tampa Bay and Jacksonville will recover more quickly than Miami/Fort Lauderdale and Naples/Fort Myers, he believes.

The Trends
More rentals
Falling land, labor and material costs
For condo developers and buyers, higher presale and equity requirements
More existing homes on the market
More foreclosures and distressed sales
Credit crunch for buyers, builders and developers
Miami’s market may remain troubled longer than others. Real estate consultant David Dabby, president of the Dabby Group in Coral Gables, estimates there are about 35,000 new condominium units recently completed or under construction.

Meanwhile, Florida’s luxury second-home market remains one of the few bright spots, says Ron Shuffield, president and CEO of EWM Realty in Coral Gables. “The high-end buyer is very active in our marketplace,” he says. “They see an opportunity to buy choice units at prices they may not see again.”

Tags: Housing/Construction

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