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Leaning Republican, Again
Florida will likely gain nine seats in Congress by 2040. Find out why those seats will probably trend Republican and what a group of activists is trying to do about it.
The state is expected to gain at least two, and possibly three, congressional seats following the 2010 Census. After the 2030 Census, if population growth continues as expected, Florida will accrue another seven congressional seats.
Dave Colburn, a University of Florida historian, says that in all likelihood, the partisan makeup of the delegation won't change that much as seats are added to represent growing constituencies. "We probably can predict Republicans will hold most of those seats, too - unless we change the redistricting procedure or policies we've got in place now."
While Democrats have a registration advantage in the state - as of May of 2008 there were 4.1 million Democrats in Florida and 3.9 million Republicans - Republicans dominate the 25-member U.S. House delegation and the state Legislature thanks to having controlled the Legislature during redistricting. As the Democrats did when they dominated the Legislature, the Republicans drew the districts in such a way as to maximize the clout of Republican voters.
"Florida's districts are among the most gerrymandered in the United States, both in the Legislature and the Congress. In the last two presidential elections, the state was roughly split 50-50 and yet, two-thirds or more of the districts are controlled by the Republicans," says J. Gerald Hebert, executive director of the Campaign Legal Center, a D.C.-based non-profit that focuses on campaign finance and elections, political communications and government ethics.
Florida Democrats, of course, gerrymandered districts for more than a century while they controlled the Legislature. But today's advanced computer technology and sophisticated voter databases enhance the ability to effectively gerrymander.
Hebert, who previously served in the Voting Section of the Civil Rights Division of the Justice Department, says gerrymandering is detrimental to the democratic process - putting an effective lock on representation for years at a time. "A redistricting is really like five elections all wrapped into one, because it governs the state for 10 years, or five election cycles."
Case in point: In 2004, not a single GOP incumbent in Florida running for re-election in the Legislature or Congress was defeated. In 2006, Rep. Clay Shaw was the only GOP incumbent to lose his seat, not including Florida Rep. Mark Foley, who resigned when it was revealed that he had sent sexually explicit instant messages to a congressional page.
Hoping to make the district lines more reflective of the population, a bipartisan group called FairDistrictsFlorida.org is pushing a plan to amend the state Constitution to require that legislators to draw compact districts that are consistent with both with residential and geographic patterns and not simply based on party affiliation.
Spearheading the campaign is Thom Rumberger, a prominent Florida attorney and environmental activist who serves as the chairman of the Everglades Trust.
Honorary co-chairs of the group include: Former Sen. and Florida Gov. Bob Graham (D), former state Sen. Daryl Jones (D) and former Attorney General Janet Reno.
Ellen Freidin, a Democratic lawyer in Miami and the campaign chair of FairDistrictsFlorida.org, says the ballot initiative would prohibit drawing district lines to favor an incumbent or political party but would require that voting rights for racial and language minorities be maintained. "What we did is took language that exists in federal law and make that part of the redistricting criteria. It would be identical to the federal law."
The group has already raised more than $374,000 for its signature-gathering effort. Big contributors to the cause include Boar's Head meats owner Frank Brunckhorst of Sarasota; the Florida chapter of the activist group ACORN, which represents low- and moderate-income families;
Orlando lawyer and current congressional candidate Alan Grayson, a Democrat; the D.C.-based Service Employees International Union; and Common Cause.
This is not the first attempt at reforming Florida's redistricting process. Last year, Common Cause spent $3 million trying to push for a constitutional amendment that sought to create an independent commission to oversee the state's redistricting process, but the Supreme Court threw the ballot question out because it violated a "single-subject" requirement for ballot questions posed by a petition.
Freidin says the group is having more success this time - and she is confident the court will approve the ballot question "because it is as single item."
Freidin's group has already gathered enough signatures to trigger a review of their ballot language by the Florida Supreme Court. Oral arguments are set for Nov. 5. If the ballot language is approved and the group acquires 611,000 signatures, the proposal will appear on the 2010 ballot. Passage of the constitutional amendment, which would require at least 60% voter approval, would put the new redistricting guidelines in place for the 2012 redistricting.
Despite the cynicism he so often hears when it comes to redistricting reform, Hebert is hopeful. "People don't think it's possible to change the system, but it is. It becomes easier when people realize that the system we have now is politicians choosing voters, rather than voters choosing who their elected representatives are."
