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Election 2008
Who Will Take Florida? McCain or Obama
Florida Trend asked some of the state's political experts to predict what will happen in Florida on Election Day 2008.
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Turning Points
The 2008 presidential race will represent turning points of monumental proportions. These turning points are not just because a representative of a minority group will win the White House. No matter who wins, the opportunities for members of all minority groups have been enhanced for future elections. If McCain wins, he will be the oldest president on record, and we will have the first female vice president; if Obama wins, we will have the first African-American president and first Catholic vice president. The majority has become the minority.
Long Lines
In August, a change in state law took effect that mandates a paper trail and a backup for all ballots cast. I have worked as a poll worker since 2004; since 2006, I have served as a poll clerk, the person who gets both credit and blame based on how things go at the polling place. My biggest concern at the state’s Aug. 26 primaries was that the new machines would malfunction. They did not. The only problems that will likely arise at the actual polling sites will be related to high voter turnout — long lines and first-time voters who come to the wrong polling place. As in every election, there will be voters who do not understand the ballot language on the amendments and who do not know the candidates whose offices are found lower on the ballot.
Showing Up
The country with the longest- running representative democracy in the world has among the lowest voter turnout. Depending on whom you ask, we are third-to-last in the world, ahead of Switzerland and Poland, and behind Estonia, Iceland and India, among many others. What brings people to the polls? Elections that matter — plain and simple. What makes elections matter is that potential voters believe that the outcome will make a difference in their lives. The more similar the candidates appear to the public, the lower will be voter turnout. If it is expected that one candidate will win hands down, then the public will stay home as well. In 2008, neither of these conditions is true. Thus, we can expect that turnout will increase. This means more first-time and otherwise inexperienced voters.
