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Election 2008
Who Will Take Florida? McCain or Obama
Florida Trend asked some of the state's political experts to predict what will happen in Florida on Election Day 2008.
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Presidential Edge
McCain has the edge based on history, but Obama has a shot based on the current trends. Florida has never voted for a liberal Democrat or a black candidate in a statewide election in the modern political era. McCain should do well with Republicans, conservative Democrats, veterans and active military, Cubans and seniors and fight Obama to a draw with independents. However, the economy is very tough in Florida, and the president’s party usually gets the blame when that happens. Obama has out-raised McCain and will spend a ton of money in Florida — which is essential to cover 10 media markets. Also, Obama has done a great job electrifying his base and registering new voters — the Florida Democrats have far outnumbered Republicans in new voter registration over the past year. If black voters and younger voters turn out in record numbers, Obama could make history in Florida.
Amendment 2
It should be a draw for conservative voters who otherwise have not been as thrilled with McCain. With the addition of Palin on the GOP ticket, the number of social and religious conservatives who are mobilized in favor of this issue will exceed the number of liberals and gay rights activists who are mobilized to fight against it.
Hot Issues
Economic issues will be most important for the majority of Florida voters — high gas prices, high food prices, high property insurance, high property taxes, declining property values, declining state and local budgets and declining employment are real and growing concerns.
But remember that many voters in a presidential election are not issue voters — many vote based on the leadership characteristics, personality, “likeability” and experience of the candidates.
Veep Factor
Palin will likely play better. But vice presidential nominees rarely decide a race. If the GOP is fortunate, Palin will inspire turnout among conservatives and convert a few undecided women. Biden is a solid choice, but Obama’s electoral sizzle is not enhanced by his addition — now if he had picked Hillary ... .
Minority Turnout
Black turnout will exceed the record level set in the 2000 presidential election. Hispanic turnout will be strong as well, although likely not record-setting in terms of percent.
Polling Problems?
I don’t think there will be any major trouble. Many counties will be giving their optical scan ballots their biggest test since they got rid of the touch screens. However, the optical scan technology is very solid and has proven reliable over the years in many other counties in Florida so chances are good for a glitch-free election. Some optical scan software has had problems in the tabulation phase — thankfully, if that happens we now have paper ballots to review.
