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Election 2008
Who Will Take Florida? McCain or Obama
Florida Trend asked some of the state's political experts to predict what will happen in Florida on Election Day 2008.
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Independents
Every piece of data that I’ve seen shows that Florida is a tossup. The way it’s going to work out is with the independent voters and, in particular, the independent voters in the I-4 corridor. Almost 38% of Florida’s independent voters live along that corridor, and that’s where the battle is going to be.
Veep Factor
Are all the nice, old Jewish ladies in south Florida going to return to the Republican fold? If McCain had chosen Joe Lieberman, I’d say yes. Instead, McCain chose a woman who’ll be of absolutely no use. I noticed that Biden immediately went to southeast Florida and has done very well with the Jewish community there. I think McCain helped himself with the evangelicals, who were very skittish, with the pick of Palin. However, the hierarchy of Florida GOP are all bent out of shape because Charlie Crist wasn’t chosen because Charlie would have been a stronger candidate in Florida than Palin.
The Economy, Stupid
Based on the GOP convention, the McCain campaign has much more work to do in Florida than it thought it had to do six months ago. The bottom line is that McCain and Obama are going to have to come up with a plan to revive Florida’s economy. It’s absolutely tanking and getting worse. The candidate who can make the most sense — not the one who can promise the most — and be the most appealing to get Florida back on its feet, that person will have a decided advantage.
Amendment 2
Gay marriage brings out the evangelicals. They’re the ones fighting the culture wars, and that helps McCain, obviously. That thing will probably pass, and it will probably have a very large turnout. What I’d guess is the Democrats aren’t going to fight that battle. They’ll try to focus their attention beyond that onto something else. The last thing Obama’s people want is to get wrapped up in that controversy.
