Climbing the Hill

Another factor is LeMieux's inexperience as a campaigner. A skilled behind-the-scenes operative, he is credited with much of the success of Crist's campaign and general political strategy. But he's only run for office himself once, campaigning unsuccessfully in 1998 for a seat in the Florida Legislature. And for all his activity in Washington, his profile among voters remains low. A July 30 Quinnipiac University poll found that 54% of Florida voters surveyed said that they "didn't know" enough to say whether LeMieux was doing a good job as U.S. senator, whereas only 24% of Florida voters "didn't know" enough to issue an opinion on Nelson's job performance.

LeMieux shouldn't have trouble raising money. Stints as the chair of the tight-knit Republican Party in Broward County, Deputy Attorney General, Crist's chief of staff and chairman of the statewide law firm Gunster have acquainted him with many big-money donors he can reach out to. But it's unlikely that LeMieux could mount a successful campaign against Nelson, a Democrat — or would even attempt one — in 2012 if Jeb Bush decides to enter the race. With the GOP viewing Nelson as vulnerable, many Republicans will likely push hard for the former governor to run and take advantage of his star appeal. A Bush candidacy, many believe, would all but evaporate financial support for any Republican challengers.

The biggest unknown for LeMieux, however, may be the Charlie factor: First, whether Republican donors and voters accept LeMieux's repudiation of Crist after Crist left the GOP. LeMieux says the estrangement is political, not personal. As "painful" as it was for him, LeMieux says he couldn't support Crist once the governor decided to run as an unaffiliated candidate. LeMieux insists that despite his endorsement of Crist foe Marco Rubio, his friendship with the governor is "fine." LeMieux says he still talks to Crist "about state issues. We've been talking about this oil spill a lot. We may talk about something that doesn't have to do with politics. We don't talk about politics anymore, so it's a little awkward, but I think that our friendship is strong enough to survive this."

In addition to whether hard-partisan Republicans will tolerate that friendship, there's another question: If Crist wins the Senate race this year, will Florida voters in 2012 choose to have the state represented in the U.S. Senate by Crist and Crist's former chief of staff? LeMieux's ties to the governor have given his foes some political ammunition. When LeMieux left Crist's staff in 2007 to work as a private attorney for the Gunster law firm, some accused him of using his ties to Crist to secure lucrative contracts for the firm, including one with the Florida Department of Transportation. LeMieux has denied playing any role in securing the DOT contract, which was signed two weeks before he joined the law firm, but his Democratic opponents don't buy it. "He was essentially selling access to Charlie Crist as governor. That was his business plan," says Jotkoff.

Some high-profile Republicans have also come out swinging at LeMieux and his business dealings. As a state representative, Senate candidate Rubio criticized LeMieux's role in negotiating a gambling compact on behalf of the state of Florida with the Seminole Tribe of Florida while at the same time serving as a paid consultant to the Florida Republican Party. (The tribe donated $700,000 to the party during the negotiations.) "Whose interests were represented in those talks?" Rubio told the St. Petersburg Times. "Was it the people's? Or was it George LeMieux's or Charlie Crist's?"

Base of support

In the meantime, however, LeMieux's time in Washington has clearly won him the affections of several constituencies important to any 2012 campaign. For one, he has established himself as a reliable and consistent champion of the Florida business community. Barney Bishop, president and CEO of the influential business lobbying group Associated Industries of Florida, calls LeMieux an "extraordinarily good vote" for Florida business constituencies. "He meets with us, reaches out. He calls." In a veiled jab at Nelson, Bishop says, "that's something you don't often see with other elected officials."

Bishop is also among those who think LeMieux has put enough distance between himself and Crist to have his own distinct political identity. "George has life regardless of what happens to Charlie," he says.

LeMieux also has established himself among the Republican members of the nation's most exclusive club as a worthy colleague should he win election. The framed roll-call vote in LeMieux's office includes an inscribed message from McConnell: "To George, with high hopes for your speedy return to the U.S. Senate."

"I haven't ruled anything in or out for the future," LeMieux says. But those close to him says he's clearly interested in returning to Capitol Hill. [Photo: Katherine Lambert]