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News Release
Revenue Estimating Conference for Florida's General Revenue Fund - Executive Summary
For the 2015-16 fiscal year, total collections were virtually on forecast, ending the year $50.6 million or 0.2 percent above estimate; however, this outcome masks differences between revenue sources that show one of the major sources significantly above and two others significantly below their respective estimates. Given the slightly weaker National and Florida Economic Forecasts that were previously adopted, the Conference made downward adjustments to Sales and Documentary Stamp Taxes that eclipsed the remaining positive adjustments. Anticipated revenues were revised down by -$131.9 million in FY 2016- 17 and by -$135.1 million in FY 2017-18, for a two-year total of -$267.0 million.
The revised FY 2016-17 estimate exceeds the prior year’s collections by slightly more than $1 billion (or 3.6 percent). The revised forecast for FY 2017-18 has projected growth of $1.35 billion (or 4.6 percent) over the revised FY 2016-17 estimate. The growth rate for FY 2018-19 was increased from 3.7 to 4.1 percent and increased for FY 2019-20 from 3.7 to 4.0 percent, with the resulting dollar levels staying similar to the prior forecast.
The most significant changes to the forecast are shown below:
- Sales Tax... The forecast revisions of -$229.0 million in FY 2016-17 and -$205.9 million in FY 2017-18 reflect the lower-than-expected collections in three of the six categories during the last six months, and the relatively minor gains in two of the remaining categories. Only the Business Investment category demonstrated any strength at the end of the state’s fiscal year. Taking into account the somewhat weaker National and Florida Economic Forecasts, the Conference made downward adjustments to five of the six categories in FY 2016-17 and to four of the six categories in FY 2017-18.
- Corporate Income Tax... The forecast revisions of $84.7 million in FY 2016-17 and $102.2 million in FY 2017-18 reflect higher-than-expected recent collections and the slightly stronger corporate profits forecast adopted by the National Economic Estimating Conference in July. The Conference noted that the opposing forces of slower economic growth in the short-term coupled with the strong performance coming out of FY 2015-16 introduce a greater than normal degree of uncertainty to this forecast.
- Real Estate Taxes (Documentary Stamp Tax and Intangibles Tax)... The combined estimate was adjusted downward. Together, the decreases to General Revenue collections are -$25.2 million in FY 2016-17 and -$35.7 million in FY 2017-18. These changes primarily reflect the lower-than-expected activity since the last forecast, as well as the changes to the economic forecasts and expected slowing of future refinancing activity.
The remainder of today’s adjustments were made to fine-tune the estimates across sources or to recognize discrete changes to key forecast assumptions.
Several of the revisions to the forecast (Tobacco Taxes, Article V Fees & Transfers, Indian Gaming Revenues, and Highway Safety Licenses & Fees) are the results of earlier conferences. Combining the results from these conferences produces an increase of $38.6 million in FY 2016-17 and $12.2 million in FY 2017-18. Additional information regarding these sources can be found on the Legislative Office of Economic and Demographic Research’s website, here.
