March 28, 2024

Election 2016

Purple state, high stakes for Florida

Jason Garcia | 7/27/2016

Florida House

Can Democrats Gain Ground?

The most important elections in Florida this year are the 40 state Senate races, where Democrats, marginalized to the point of irrelevance, have an opportunity to make significant gains.

As with the state’s congressional districts, the Republican-controlled Legislature was forced to redraw Senate seats this year to comply with anti-gerrymandering provisions that voters added to the state Constitution in 2010. As a result, there are at least four competitive swing seats, a number that could swell to five or six depending on how the presidential race buffets candidates further down the ballot.

Republicans have a 24-16 majority in the Legislature’s upper chamber, but the gap could shrink to anything from 25-15 to 22-18.

It isn’t just a matter of Republicans vs. Democrats. With a number of senators retiring or giving up their seats in pursuit of other offices, there are also several contests pitting conservatives against moderates in Republican primaries or liberals against moderates in Democratic primaries. Those results could do as much to alter the balance in the Senate as the general election campaign.

There will be at least 18 new senators next year, which would be the biggest crop of newcomers since 1992. And it’s entirely possible that more than half of the chamber will be new.

“The turnover in the Senate could drastically change the direction of Florida,” says Marian Johnson, political director for the Florida Chamber of Commerce.

Two Strong Contenders

District 8 (Alachua, Marion, Putnam counties) — An open seat race pitting Republican candidate state Rep. W. Keith Perry, a contractor with a history of winning elections in purple districts, against Democratic former state Sen. Rod Smith, a pro-gun former prosecutor who made an unsuccessful run for governor in 2006 that was heavily financed by the sugar industry. As a conservative Democrat with a history of deal-making in the Legislature, Smith could immediately become one of the most important figures in the Legislature if he wins.

Shrewd Operator

Distrct 18 (Hillsborough County) — There isn’t a stronger Republican challenger for a state Senate seat than state Rep. Dana Young, a shrewd political operator and prodigious fundraiser. She’s popular outside of her party for championing causes beneficial to the craft-beer industry. Still, Republican strategists are nervous about this seat, which President Barack Obama carried in 2012. Democrats, who will nominate Tampa attorney Bob Buesing, may have to spend upward of $2 million to win, and it’s unlikely they’ll have that kind of money.

Big Impact

District 23 (Charlotte, Sarasota counties) — No race will have a bigger impact on the Senate Republican caucus than this one. The GOP primary includes sitting Reps. Greg Steube and Ray Pilon, former state Rep. Doug Holder and former Sarasota Commissioner Nora Patterson. Holder and Steube are seen as the most conservative candidates, while Patterson and Pilon are more moderate. Adding to the intrigue: Patterson was recruited to run by Sen. Jack Latvala (R-Clearwater) during his unsuccessful run for the Senate presidency. Despite the loss, Latvala has proven to be a master builder of coalitions of senators that create headaches for leadership. Patterson’s election would likely strengthen his hand. The winner of the GOP primary in August will be the overwhelming favorite to win the general election.

GOP Priority

District 39 (Miami-Dade, Monroe counties) — Incumbent Republican Sen. Anitere Flores is part of incoming Senate President Joe Negron’s inner circle, and Negron, who is in charge of spending on Republican Senate campaigns, will make her re-election a priority. Flores appeared to catch a break at the end of qualifying when Andrew Korge, a well-financed Democratic challenger, decided to run for a different Senate seat. But she still faces a credible opponent in former Florida International University executive Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.

Rising Star

District 13 (Orange County) — Former Democratic state Rep. Mike Clelland made headlines in 2012 when he defeated a future Republican House Speaker in a district that had been drawn for a Republican to win. He lost the seat two years later, but Democratic Party leaders think he’s a future star and are anxious to get him back in office. But to get into the Senate, Clelland, who voted with the Republican majority a number of times during his two years in the House, will first have to beat two other Democrats, including Linda Stewart, another former state representative who is adored by liberal voting blocks in Orlando, including environmentalists and LGBT activists. The Democratic nominee will be favored to win a race against Republican opponent Dean Asher, a former Florida Realtor president whose campaign is being financed by the industry.

Battleground District

District 37 (Miami-Dade) — A Republican incumbent in this majority Hispanic district, Sen. Miguel Diaz de la Portilla, is trying to fend off Democratic state Rep. Jose Javier Rodriguez. Diaz de la Portilla has been among the more moderate Republicans in the Senate. He single-handedly blocked legislation this year that would have allowed people to openly carry guns and to bring concealed weapons onto college campuses. But Democratic Party leaders believe Rodriguez could be a future candidate for statewide office.

Internal Battle

District 40 (Miami-Dade County) — Democrats are in the midst of a minor civil war for this seat, which, like Districts 37 and 39, is majority Hispanic. The candidates include incumbent Democratic Sen. Dwight Bullard; Ana Rivas Logan, a former state representative who was a Republican but became a Democrat; and Andrew Korge, the son of a national Democratic Party fundraiser who initially planned to run in District 39 but switched districts at the last minute. Whoever survives will then face a tough general election campaign against Republican state Rep. Frank Artiles, who has led the battle to limit which bathrooms transKey West gender Floridians can use.

Tags: Politics & Law, Government/Politics & Law, Election 2016

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