SHARE:
News Release from UNF
Duval County likely voters poll shows mixed feelings about pension tax
Jacksonville, Fla. – A new poll of likely voters in Duval County by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory (PORL) at the University of North Florida shows that support for the pension tax plan is not universal. Support for Mayor Lenny Curry’s pension tax is a mixed bag, with 41 percent of respondents who strongly or somewhat approve, 33 percent who strongly or somewhat oppose and 26 percent who still don’t know. Support and opposition for the pension tax is relatively uniform across party affiliations.
“Mayor Curry still has some work to do garnering votes for the pension tax, but there is reason for optimism since support outweighs opposition by 8 percentage points,” said Dr. Michael Binder, PORL faculty director.
Regarding job approval of local leadership, Curry fared well with 69 percent of likely voters who strongly or somewhat approve of his performance as mayor. Not surprisingly, more Republicans than Democrats approve of Curry, but the vast majority of respondents approve of Curry regardless of party affiliation.
“The mayor is enjoying extremely high levels of job approval through the first year of his term. It will be interesting to see if Curry can parlay his political capital into a passing vote on the pension tax ballot measure,” said Binder.
Mike Williams also has widespread approval with 72 percent of respondents who strongly or somewhat approve of his job as Jacksonville’s Sheriff.
“Like Mayor Curry, Williams has strong support among whites and Republicans, but the majority of blacks and Democrats also approve of how he is handling his duties,” noted Binder.
The Jacksonville City Council and the Superintendent of Duval County Schools, Nikolai Vitti, garnered the approval (strongly or somewhat) of about half of the sample, whereas roughly 30 percent disapprove of the job they are doing and 20 percent don’t know.
Clerk of Court incumbent Ronnie Fussell will be on the ballot in November after gaining notoriety last year for cancelling all Duval County courthouse wedding ceremonies when same-sex marriage was legalized nationwide. Currently, 39 percent of Duval County likely voters strongly or somewhat approve of Fussell’s performance on the job, 10 percent somewhat or strongly disapprove, while more than half of respondents, 51 percent, are unsure.
“Though Fussell won’t be on the ballot in August, he will be in November and his current level of job approval bodes well for him,” said Binder.
When asked about the most important problem facing Jacksonville, 38 percent said it’s crime, 16 percent think it is the economy/jobs and 15 percent selected education. Further analysis shows differences between races, with more than half, 54 percent, of black likely voters who think crime is the most important problem compared with 34 percent of white likely voters; and only two percent of black likely voters perceive the public pension problem as the most important in contrast to 18 percent of white likely voters.
“Similar to our spring 2015 Jax Speaks survey of Duval likely voters, crime is the most important problem facing Jacksonville,” said Binder. “The 20-point difference between white and black likely voters is striking, as is the discrepancy between white and black opinion on the importance of the pension problem. Perhaps that points to the racial differences in levels of support for the proposition, if the black community doesn’t think the pension debt is a big problem, then it makes sense they would be less likely to support a tax to pay for it.”
In the wake of the Orlando massacre, support for a Human Rights Ordinance in Duval County runs high. The majority of likely voters support expanding the HRO to include anti-discrimination protection on the basis of sexual orientation, gender identity or expression in the areas of housing, employment and public accommodations. However, this support varies widely across party lines, with more than 70 percent of Democrats and those with other party affiliations who support the HRO compared with only 38 percent of Republicans.
“The PORL has been running surveys on the HRO for several years, this is the first time that Republicans have had a net negative for the HRO,” noted Binder. “I can only surmise that the bathroom debate has eroded support among Republican super voters.”
