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Latin American Connection
Going South?
Florida watches nervously as a neo-populist tide rolls through Latin America, the state's most important trade region
Most, however, believe the free-trade door won't open as wide as they once hoped. At the very least, neo-populism has shaded the trade picture with uncertainty for those who do business in Latin America. Many Florida businesspeople grow skittish when asked to comment on political developments in the region. But those willing to talk say it's a mistake to pretend that the shifting political environment -- and several other potential "wild cards" [left] -- hasn't also changed Latin America's business climate.
"I used to think 'all hat and no cattle' too, but I don't think you can say that anymore," says Terry L. McCoy, director of the University of Florida's Latin American Business Environment Program, which analyzes the region's business outlook each year. Leaders such as Chavez and Bolivia's Evo Morales have enormous oil and gas resources and aren't afraid to use them as leverage. "These guys know what they're doing."
Wild Cards
Along with populist politics, wild cards that could influence trade and business relations in Latin America include:
? IMMIGRATION REFORM: Florida's top three industries -- tourism, agriculture and home building -- all will suffer if Congress passes a hard-line immigration reform bill. Meanwhile, the negative tone of the debate in Washington and around the nation has chilled the normally warm business relationship between Mexico and the U.S.
? CHINA: China's hunger for commodities is helping fuel the global economy and lifting commodities prices, keeping Latin America's economy healthy. But in the long term, China's efforts to build supply relationships with providers such as Brazil and Venezuela could affect Florida and the U.S. by diverting trade.
? ECONOMIC DOWNTURN: Latin America is enjoying a sustained economic recovery, with four straight years of exportled growth, low inflation and increasing foreign investment. But historically the region's economic peaks have been followed by steep dips. Some countries may respond to an economic downturn by becoming more protective and less marketoriented.
? CUBA: Just when Fidel Castro's handover of power gave Florida businesspeople hope his reign might end and investment in Cuba might begin, Venezuela's Chavez is working to save the socialist regime. Venezuela exports 90,000 barrels of oil a day to the island nation at favorable rates. A White House report on the likelihood of Cuba's transition to democracy says Venezuela is helping "build a network of political and financial support designed to forestall any external pressure to change."
